首页 | 官方网站   微博 | 高级检索  
     

地形重力波拖曳参数化对热带气旋强度和路径预报影响的研究
引用本文:钟水新,陈子通,戴光丰,徐道生,黄燕燕,张诚忠,蒙伟光,杨兆礼.地形重力波拖曳参数化对热带气旋强度和路径预报影响的研究[J].大气科学,2014,38(2):273-284.
作者姓名:钟水新  陈子通  戴光丰  徐道生  黄燕燕  张诚忠  蒙伟光  杨兆礼
作者单位:1.区域数值天气预报重点实验室, 广州510080;中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所, 广州510080;中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室, 北京100081
基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项GYHY201206010、GYHY201006016、GYHY201106003;灾害天气国家重点实验室开放基金2012LASW-B03;国家自然科学基金41075040、41275053;广东省气象局重点项目2013A04
摘    要:本文在GRAPES_TMM(Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System for Tropical Mesoscale Model)——中国南海台风模式版(面向南海和东南亚)中发展和引进了KA95(Kim and Arakawa,1995)地形重力波拖曳参数化方案(GWDO),并对2012年主要的9个登陆台风进行了试验对比研究,考察了不同标准Richardson数(Ric)的GWDO试验对台风路径和强度预报的影响。结果表明,在引入地形重力波拖曳参数化过程后,模式对台风登陆时路径和强度的预报能力均要有提高,对台风预报时长越长,GWDO的影响也更为显著。对双台风“SAOLA”和“DAMREY”试验结果表明,GWDO对台风外围距台风中心150 km的对流层中下层风速减弱较为明显,减弱了GRAPES区域模式对台风强度预报偏强的现象,对台风强度长时间预报改善更为明显。不同标准Ric对重力波拖曳力的计算较为敏感,当Ric取1.0时,动能迅速的在低层被频散,能量无法有效地上传;Ric取0.25时,大部分的能量在中高层被频散。总的来说,Ric取0.75时对台风路径和强度预报改进更为显著,其结果可为业务预报提供指导意义。

关 键 词:KA95方案    地形重力波拖曳    GRAPES模式    台风
收稿时间:2013/3/11 0:00:00
修稿时间:7/8/2013 12:00:00 AM

Impacts of Orographic Gravity Wave Drag Parameterization on Typhoon Intensity and Path Forecasting
ZHONG Shuixin,CHEN Zitong,DAI Guangfeng,XU Daosheng,HUANG Yanyan,ZHANG Chengzhong,MENG Weiguang and YANG Zhaoli.Impacts of Orographic Gravity Wave Drag Parameterization on Typhoon Intensity and Path Forecasting[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2014,38(2):273-284.
Authors:ZHONG Shuixin  CHEN Zitong  DAI Guangfeng  XU Daosheng  HUANG Yanyan  ZHANG Chengzhong  MENG Weiguang and YANG Zhaoli
Affiliation:1.Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction, Guangzhou 510080;Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Guangzhou 510080;State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 1000812.Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction, Guangzhou 510080;Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Guangzhou 510080
Abstract:The scheme of gravity wave drag from sub-grid scale orography (GWDO) is implemented into typhoon models for the South China Sea and southeastern Asia based on the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System for the Tropical Mesoscale Model (GRAPES-TMM). Its performance is evaluated against non-GWDO parameterization of nine typhoons that made landfall in 2012 in addition to the sensitivity of various criteria of the Richardson number (Ric) for typhoon path and intensity forecasting. The results reveal that the KA95 scheme improves the overall performance of GRAPES for typhoon forecasting when the GWDO parameterization is implemented, particularly with longer forecasts. Double typhoons Damrey and Saola are used as case studies to show that GWDO parameterization is highly effective for forecasting typhoons in the middle and lower troposphere. Moreover, the calculation of gravity wave drag indicates that significant and negligible low-level wave drag is predicted with large and small Richardson numbers (Ric=1.0, Ric=0.25), respectively. By defining a moderate Richardson number (Ric=0.75), improvements in predicting the paths and intensities of typhoons are achieved.
Keywords:KA95 scheme  Orographic gravity wave drag  GRAPES (Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System)  Typhoon
本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录!
点击此处可从《大气科学》浏览原始摘要信息
点击此处可从《大气科学》下载全文
设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司    京ICP备09084417号-23

京公网安备 11010802026262号