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四川暴雨过程动力因子指示意义与预报意义研究
引用本文:李琴,杨帅,崔晓鹏,冉令坤.四川暴雨过程动力因子指示意义与预报意义研究[J].大气科学,2016,40(2):341-356.
作者姓名:李琴  杨帅  崔晓鹏  冉令坤
作者单位:1.中国科学院大气物理研究所云降水物理与强风暴实验室, 北京 100029;中国科学院大学, 北京 100049
基金项目:中国科学院重点部署项目KZZD-EW-05-01
摘    要:本文利用2010年8月18~19日四川盆地西部地区一次引发了泥石流等次生灾害的暴雨天气过程的数值模拟资料及0.5°×0.5°分辨率、每6 h一次的GFS(Global Forecast Model)预报资料,结合集合动力因子预报系统中的广义对流涡度矢量垂直分量、质量散度、垂直螺旋度、质量垂直螺旋度、水汽垂直螺旋度、热力垂直螺旋度、湿热力平流参数、密度散度垂直通量、散度垂直通量、热力散度垂直通量、水汽散度通量、广义 Q 矢量散度等12个动力因子成员对此次暴雨过程进行诊断分析和预报研究,结果显示:(1)集合动力因子预报系统中的动力因子对此次降水落区诊断效果良好;(2)各动力因子区域均值随时间的变化曲线都能表现出降水区域均值随时间变化曲线双峰形态,其中,广义 Q 矢量散度、水汽垂直螺旋度、热力垂直螺旋度、质量垂直螺旋度、垂直螺旋度与降水的相关系数较大(达0.9以上),对此次降水的诊断效果较好;(3)动力因子对此次强降水过程的发展演变具有一定的预报能力。

关 键 词:四川暴雨    动力因子    诊断与预报
收稿时间:2014/10/17 0:00:00

Diagnosis and Forecasting of Dynamical Parameters for a Heavy Rainfall Event in Sichuan Province
LI Qin,YANG Shuai,CUI Xiaopeng and RAN Lingkun.Diagnosis and Forecasting of Dynamical Parameters for a Heavy Rainfall Event in Sichuan Province[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2016,40(2):341-356.
Authors:LI Qin  YANG Shuai  CUI Xiaopeng and RAN Lingkun
Affiliation:Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049,Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044 and Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029
Abstract:A torrential rain event with severe secondary disasters(e.g., debris flow) occurred in the western Sichuan Basin during 18-19 August 2010.Based on numerical simulation data and 0.5°×0.5°four-times-daily reanalysis data from the NCEP's Global Forecast System products, combined with dynamic parameters including the generalized vertical convective vorticity vector(cvz*), mass divergence(divden), vertical helicity(hel), mass vertical helicity(helden), moisture vertical helicity(helqv), thermal vertical helicity(helth), moist thermodynamic advection parameter(mtp), mass divergence flux(wdiv), divergence flux(wdendiv), thermal vertical divergence flux(wptediv), moisture divergence flux(wqvdiv), generalized Q vector divergence(divq*), a diagnostic analysis and forecasting study of this torrential rain event were carried out.The results showed that:(1) all twelve dynamical parameters showed strong signals in the torrential rainfall area.(2) The curves of the temporal trends of regional average dynamic parameters and the mean regional rainfall were similar, showing a twin-peak structure.The time series' correlation coefficients of the mean regional rainfall and the regional average values of generalized Q vector divergence, moisture vertical helicity(helqv), thermal vertical helicity(helth), mass vertical helicity(helden) and vertical helicity(hel) were greater than 0.9.(3) The dynamic parameters considered in this study are of considerable importance in the diagnosis and prediction of torrential rain in this region.
Keywords:Sichuan basin  Rainstorm  Dynamic parameters  Diagnosis  Prediction
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