| 北京地区强对流天气短时预报方法的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王笑芳,丁一汇.北京地区强对流天气短时预报方法的研究[J].大气科学,1994,18(2):173-183. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王笑芳 丁一汇 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象科学研究院,北京 100081 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文由两部分组成，第一部分分析了北京地区冰雹落区与中尺度天气系统、散度场、涡度场、地面总能量场及相对湿度分布的关系。在此基础上概括出冰雹落区的概念模式，为冰雹落区预报提供了一种依据。第二部分说明了利用北京０８时单站探空资料预报强对流天气有无及强度的判断树方法，为强对流天气的短时预报提供了有应用价值的思路和方法。
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| 关 键 词： | 强对流天气 灾害性天气 天气预报 北京 |
Study on Method of Short-range Forecast of Severe Covective Weather in Beijing Area |
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| Wang Xiaofang and Ding Yihui.Study on Method of Short-range Forecast of Severe Covective Weather in Beijing Area[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,1994,18(2):173-183. |
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| Authors: | Wang Xiaofang and Ding Yihui |
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| Abstract: | This paper includes two parts. The relations between the hai1 fallout zone and surface meso-scale synoptic systems, the distribution of divergence, vorticity, total temperature, and relative humidity at the surface in Beiing area are analysed in the first aspect. Thereafter one conceptual model of the hail fallout zone is established, providing a scientific basis for predicting the hail fallout zone. The second part discribes a decision tree method of forecasting whether severe convective weather will happen and how strong it will be. This brings us a valuable idea about the shortrange forecast of severe convections. |
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| Keywords: | severe convective weather disaster weather weather forecast Beijing |
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