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淮海地区降水周期及突变特征分析
引用本文:孙善磊,周锁铨,金博,李金建,赖安伟.淮海地区降水周期及突变特征分析[J].气象科学,2010,30(2):221-227.
作者姓名:孙善磊  周锁铨  金博  李金建  赖安伟
作者单位:1. 南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室,南京,210044
2. 沈阳市东陵区气象局,沈阳,110161
3. 四川省气候中心,成都,610072
4. 中国气象局,武汉暴雨研究所,武汉,4300774
基金项目:江苏省气象灾害重点实验室项目 
摘    要:利用淮海地区1955—2004年23个气象站点的逐日降水资料,分析了淮海地区降水的主要周期振荡以及突变点,结果表明:该地区降水均有多个时间尺度的周期变化特征,降水周期变化显著,干湿交替现象明显;降水的年代际以及年际尺度的主要周期:年降水为12a、9a、5a,春季降水为14a、6a、3a,夏季为10a、4a,秋季为21a、10a、7a,冬季为18a、5a。年降水减少趋势明显,在1967年发生了突变,由相对多雨期转入相对少雨期;春季、夏季、秋季降水都有不同程度的减少趋势,而冬季降水则表现为增加的趋势。

关 键 词:降水周期  气候突变  小波分析
收稿时间:9/6/2008 12:00:00 AM

Study on periodic and abrupt changes of precipitation in Huaihai region
Sun Shanlei,Zhou Suoquan,Jin Bo,Li Jinjian and Lai Anwe.Study on periodic and abrupt changes of precipitation in Huaihai region[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2010,30(2):221-227.
Authors:Sun Shanlei  Zhou Suoquan  Jin Bo  Li Jinjian and Lai Anwe
Affiliation:Sun Shanlei1 Zhou Suoquan1 Jin Bo2 Li Jinjian3 Lai Anwei4(1 Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education,Nanjing University of Information Science &Technology,Nanjing 210044,China)(2 Shenyang Dongling Area Meteorological Bureau,Shenyang 110161,China)(3 Sichuan Climate Center,Chengdu 610072,China)(4 Wuhan Institute of Heavy Rain,China Meteorological Administration,Wuhan 430074,China)
Abstract:Using the daily precipitation data (1955-2004) of 23 meteorological stations in Huaihai region, the periodic and abrupt changes of processes in recent 50 a are analyzed. The results show that precipitation has multi-time-scale features. The variations of precipitation periods and the phenomenon of transformation between dry and wet periods are obvious. The tests on periodic changes indicate that annual precipitation has 12,9 and 5 a period; spring precipitation has 14, 6 and 3 a period, summer precipitation has 10 and 4 a period; autumn precipitation has 21, 10 and 7 a period; winter precipitation has 18 and 5 a period. The decreasing trend of annual is obvious and the abrupt year was 1967. Spring, summer and autumn precipitation have descending trend in various degrees, but winter precipitation has increasing trend.
Keywords:Periodic precipitation Climate abrupt Wavelet Analysis
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