| 重庆中尺度集合预报系统预报性能分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈良吕,吴钲,高松.重庆中尺度集合预报系统预报性能分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2017,37(4):21-27. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈良吕 吴钲 高松 |
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| 作者单位： | 重庆市气象科学研究所, 重庆 401147 |
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| 基金项目： | 重庆市气象局业务技术攻关团队项目(YWGGTD-201715) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文利用2017年6～8月重庆中尺度集合预报系统逐日20时起报的预报资料及相应的观测资料对该系统的预报性能进行了综合分析，结果表明:500hPa位势高度、850hPa温度和2m温度的集合平均预报的均方根误差均优于控制预报，集合离散度均明显低于集合平均的均方根误差，Talagrand分布均呈现出“J型”或“U型”分布，500hPa位势高度和850hPa温度Outlier评分介于0.26～0.32，2m温度的Outlier评分普遍较高，总体介于0.33～0.67；降水预报方面，集合平均和概率匹配平均相对于控制预报表现出了较为明显的优势；小雨和中雨量级降水集合平均的TS评分明显优于概率匹配平均；大雨和暴雨量级的降水概率匹配平均的TS评分明显优于集合平均；0～24小时和24～48小时累计降水的Talagrand分布呈现出一定的“U型”分布且0～24小时更为明显,其余时效较为理想，Outlier评分随预报时效的延长而减小，最高0.31，最低0.20；降水概率预报检验方面，各个降水量级的Brier评分和相对作用特征技巧评分AROC均较为理想。总体而言，该系统相对于单一的确定性预报表现出了一定的优势。
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| 关 键 词： | 集合预报 重庆地区 中尺度模式 预报检验 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017-11-05 |
Prediction Performance Analysis of Chongqing Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System |
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| Affiliation: | Chongqing Institute Of Meteorological Science, Chongqing 401147, China |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, the prediction performance of the Chongqing Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System is comprehensively analyzed by using the forecast data and corresponding observation data started at 8pm from June to August in 2017, Result show that: The root mean square error of the ensemble mean prediction of 500hPa geopotential height, 850hPa temperature and 2 m temperature is better than that of control prediction. The ensemble spread is significantly lower than the root mean square error of the ensemble mean. The Talagrand distribution all showed a "J" or "U" distribution. The Outlier score of 500hPa geopotential height and 850hPa temperature ranged from 0.26 to 0.32.The Outlier score of the 2 meter temperature is generally higher, totally ranged from 0.33 to 0.67. In the aspect of Precipitation forecast. The ensemble mean and the probability matching mean have obvious advantages over the control forecast. The TS score of light rain and moderate rain precipitation of ensemble mean is better than that of probability matching mean. The TS score of rainfall and rainstorm precipitation of probability matching mean is better than that of ensemble mean. The talagrand distribution of 0～24 hours and 24～48 hours accumulated precipitation show a certain "U" distribution, which is more obvious in 0～24 hours, and the other forecast time is more ideal. The Outlier score decreases with the extension of the forecast time, the highest 0.31, the lowest 0.20. In the aspect of precipitation probability forecast, the Brier score and AROC of each precipitation magnitude are impressive. |
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