| 基于MET系统对SWCWARMS及GRAPES模式在西南地区的站点检验分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 屠妮妮,何光碧,衡志炜,等.基于MET系统对SWCWARMS及GRAPES模式在西南地区的站点检验分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2016,36(2):8-16. |
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| 作者姓名： | 屠妮妮 何光碧 衡志炜 等 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国气象局成都高原气象研究所/高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害省重点实验室, 成都 610072; |
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| 基金项目： | 973项目(2012CB417202)，国家自然科学基金项目(41275052、41275051) |
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| 摘 要： | 应用国家基本观测站资料、自动站逐时降水资料,基于客观统计检验方法,针对降水(12h、24h累积雨量)、近地面要素(2m温度、10m风)和高空要素(风场、温度场、高度场),分别评估SWCWARMS模式和GRAPES模式对2015年西南地区预报能力,得到如下几点结论:(1)SWCWARMS模式降水ETS评分高于GRAPES模式,除24h小雨外SWCWARMS模式偏差值均高于GRAPES模式,两个模式在不同预报时效内对中雨、大雨、暴雨都表现一定程度的空报;(2)12h降水分段评分上,SWCWARMS模式TS评分均高于GRAPES模式,但SWCWARMS模式预报降水范围过大,随着预报时效增长空报多于GRAPES模式;SWCWARMS模式中雨和大雨空报大于其它量级降水,GRAPES模式对大暴雨漏报较多其它量级降水表现为空报;(3)两模式对高度场和温度场预报优于风场,对对流层中层预报优于中低层,SWCWARMS模式对高度场和温度场预报优于GRAPES模式,夏半年SWCWARMS模式均方根误差小于GRAPES模式;(4)两模式都表现出2m温度均方根误差在秋季增加而春季减小这一特征,SWCWARMS模式近地面要素均方根误差均小于GRAPES模式。
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| 关 键 词： | SWCWARMS模式 GRAPES模式 西南地区 检验 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016-03-20 |
The Station Verification in Southwest China from SWCWARMS Model and GRAPES Model Based on MET System |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology/Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, CMA, Chengdu 610072, China;2. College of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610225, China |
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| Abstract: | Using national observation data and automatic station precipitation data,based on objective statistical methods,the prediction ability of the precipitation(12 h,24h cumulative rainfall),the surface elements(2m temperature,10m wind) and the height element(such as wind,temperature,height) in southwest China in 2015 of SWCWARMS model and GRAPES model were evaluated and compared,the main conclusions are as follows:(1) the ETS score of precipitation from SWCWARMS model higher than GRAPES model,meantime the BS score were higher than GRAPES model expert 24 hour light rain,both the two model have empty forecast in moderate rain,heavy rain,rainstorm grade;(2) in the score of 12 hour precipitation,TS score of SWCWARMS model were higher than in GRAPES,but SWCWARMS model forecast of precipitation range is too big,empty forecast more than GRAPES mode with forecast growth of aging; SWCWARMS model moderate rain and heavy rain empty forecast larger than other scale precipitation,GRAPES model failure-to-predict torrential rain and other scale precipitation is empty forecast;(3) the prediction of height field and temperature field of two models is better than that of wind field,forecast in the middle troposphere is better than that of the lower,the prediction of height field and temperature field of SWCWARMS model is superior to the GRAPES mode,RMSE of SWCWARMS model is less than GRAPES mode in the summer half year;(4) the two models have shown the RMSE of 2m temperature increased in autumn and reduced in spring,the RMSE of near ground elements from SWCWARMS model were less than GRAPES. |
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