| 贵州“2011.6”两次暴雨数值模拟研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 池再香,白慧,杜正静,等.贵州“2011.6”两次暴雨数值模拟研究[J].高原山地气象研究,2016,36(2):36-45. |
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| 作者姓名： | 池再香 白慧 杜正静 等 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 贵州省六盘水市气象局, 六盘水 553001; |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局预报员专项项目(CMAYBY2016-066)；贵州省科技计划项目(黔科合NY字[2012]3020号)；贵州省科技基金项目(黔科合J字[2012]2227号) |
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| 摘 要： | 应用湿位涡理论,利用贵州84个县市地面气象观测站及1473个乡镇自动站逐时降水观测资料、ECMWF提供的0.25°×0.25°再分析格点资料及非静力中尺度模式WRF提供的数值模拟结果,对贵州省2011年6月17日08:00~18日20:00(简称“过程Ⅰ”)和6月22日08:00~23日20:00(简称“过程Ⅱ”)两次典型暴雨过程的θse和湿位涡进行诊断分析和数值模拟。结果表明:“过程Ⅰ”受一股冷空气影响,“过程Ⅱ”受两股冷空气影响。“过程Ⅰ”辐合中心位于27°N、107°E上空800hPa处,辐散中心位于27°N、107°E上空550hPa处。“过程Ⅱ”辐合中心位于27°N、107°E上空800hPa处,辐散中心位于28°N、107°E上空750hPa处。“过程Ⅰ”,贵州上空700hPa至近地面的MPV1正值中心和MPV2负值中心的分布与大暴雨落区(兴仁-晴隆-安顺和金沙-湄潭-务川)基本一致,“过程Ⅱ”MPV1的两个正值中心和MPV2强负值中心与大暴雨落区(毕节、六枝)吻合。两次暴雨天气过程中的贵州上空MPV1值明显比MPV2值偏大。WRF模式模拟的水汽辐合中心强度比实况偏强,模拟的“过程Ⅰ”辐合区比实况偏小,模拟的“过程Ⅱ”辐合区比实况偏大。WRF模式模拟“过程Ⅰ”的贵州上空MPV1正值区中心值比实况偏小,模拟“过程Ⅱ”的贵州上空MPV1正值区中心值比实况偏大,但模拟的正值中心与强降水中心基本一致。WRF模式对两次暴雨过程MPV2负值中心的模拟均表现为不太准确。WRF模式模拟影响贵州的冷空气比实况偏强,模拟的特大暴雨中心值比实况偏大,但“过程Ⅰ”模拟的特大暴雨中心位置比实况偏南10km,“过程Ⅱ”模拟的特大暴雨中心位置比实况偏南7km,可供贵州β中尺度暴雨预报参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 暴雨 θse 湿位涡 数值模拟 贵州 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016-05-06 |
Numerical Simulation Study on Two Rainstorms in Guizhou Province in June,2011 |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Liupanshui Meteorological Bureau, Liupanshui 553000, China;2. Guizhou Climate Centre, Guiyang 550002, China;3. Key Laboratory of Mountain Climate and Recourses of Guizhou, Guiyang 550002, China;4. Panxian Meteorological Bureau, Panxian 553537, China |
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| Abstract: | By using the theory of moist potential vorticity(MPV),the characteristics of θse and MPV are analyzed in the process of two typical rainstorms(from 08:00am on 17 June 2011 to 20:00pm on 18 June 2011(process Ⅰ) and from 08: 00 am on 22 June 2011 to 20:00pm on 23 June(process Ⅱ) based on precipitation data of 84 meteorological stations and 1473 automatic stations,the ECMWF reanalysis data with 0. 25°×0. 25° spatial resolution and the numerical simulation results of WRF model. The results show that the“Process I”is affected by the cold air,the“process II”is affected by two cold air. The center of the convergence and divergence in the “process Ⅰ”rainstorm process respectively are at 800hPa and 500hPa along 27° N,107° E. The convergence center in the“process Ⅱ”rainstorm process is at 800hPa along 27°N,107°E and the divergence center is at 750hPa along 28°N,107°E. The positive value centers of MPV1 and the negative value centers of MPV2 from as high as 700hPa are almost consistent with the heavy rainfall area(from Xingren to Qinglong to Anshun and from Jinsha to Meitan to Wuchuan) in the “process Ⅰ”rainstorm process,and The two positive value centers of MPV1 and the negative value centers of MPV2 from as high as 700hPa are almost consistent with the heavy rainfall area(Bijie and Liuzhi) in the“process Ⅱ”rainstorm process. The MPV1 value of the two rainstorm weather process is obviously larger than that of MPV2. WRF model to simulate the water vapor convergence center intensity than live on the strong side,simulation of“process I ”convergence zone than live too small,simulation of“process II ”convergence zone than the live is too large. WRF model simulation“process I”of the MPV1 positive area center value is smaller than the live,analog“process II”MPV1 positive area center value is larger than the live,but the positive value of the center and the center of the strong precipitation center. WRF model for the two rainstorm process MPV2 negative center of the simulation are shown to be less accurate. The cold air ratio of WRF model is stronger than that of live,and the center of heavy rain is larger than the actual value. The“process I”simulation of the heavy rain center location than the live south 10 km,“process II”simulation of the heavy rain center location than the live south 7km. Reference for the β-scale heavy rain in Guizhou. |
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