| 应用主成分构建的暴雨致灾能力评估指数及其应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈永仁,于浩慧,魏挪巍,等.应用主成分构建的暴雨致灾能力评估指数及其应用[J].高原山地气象研究,2019,39(3):20-26. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈永仁 于浩慧 魏挪巍 等 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国气象局成都高原气象研究所, 成都 610072; |
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| 基金项目： | 高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室课题(SCQXQN2019024)中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(A类)(XDA23090103) |
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| 摘 要： | 为了构建合理的四川暴雨致灾能力评估指数(简称:评估指数),本文对2008~2018年四川地区126次致灾性暴雨过程,选取刻画暴雨特征的8个降水量因子,利用总体主成分和阈值法确立因子的权重及阈值,由此建立了评估指数模型。经历史个例反演及预报个例的评估应用表明:(1)暴雨区域的平均雨量值,≥25mm/h的面积及大暴雨面积是影响四川暴雨致灾能力强弱的关键因子,利用主成分构建的评估指数较好的反映了历次暴雨过程的致灾能力,当指数达0.8以上时,一般对应着大型及以上暴雨灾害。(2)结合经济损失及气象灾害评估分级处置标准,将评估指数划为4个等级。基于此,利用每日08时和20时四川省气象台订正的0.05°×0.05°预报降水数据,输入评估指数模型计算未来3d的指数及对应的致灾能力落区等级空间分布。实际应用表明,评估指数模型对评估暴雨过程的整体致灾能力及具体的暴雨致灾能力落区等级分布有显著的实用性。
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| 关 键 词： | 暴雨致灾能力等级 评估模型 主成分分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-07-02 |
An Assessment Index on the Ability of Rainstorm Causing Disaster Using Principal Component Construction and Its Application |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Institute of Plateau Meteorology, CMA, Chengdu 610072, China;2. Meteorological Disaster Defense Technology Center of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China;3. Sichuan Provincial Meteorological observatory, Chengdu 610072, China;4. Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China |
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| Abstract: | In order to construct a reasonable assessment index for Sichuan rainstorm-disasters (referred to as:an assessment index).In this paper,eight precipitation factors are selected to characterize the characteristics of 126 rainstorm-cases of Sichuan region from 2008 to 2018,we used the overall principal component and threshold method to establish the weight and threshold of the factor,then an assessment index was established.Through the inversion of historical cases and application of forecasting examples.The results showed that:(1) the average rainfall value in the rainstorm area,the area of ≥25 mm/h and the area of heavy rainstorm are the key factors,which affect the ability of Sichuan heavy rain disaster.The evaluation index constructed by using principal component analysis better reflects the disaster-causing ability of previous rainstorms,when the index reached 0.8 or above,it generally corresponded to Severe rainstorm disasters.(2) Combining economic loss and a standard of meteorological disaster assessment and classification,the evaluation index is classified into 4 levels.Based on this,the forecast precipitation data of 5 km×5 km corrected by the Sichuan Meteorological Observatory at 08:00 and 20:00 daily was input the assessment index model,then calculated the future index values and the spatial distribution of the corresponding disaster-prone area.The practical application showed that the evaluation index model has a significant practicability for assessing the overall disaster mitigation capacity of the rainstorm process and the spatial distribution of the specific stormwater disaster mitigation capacity. |
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