| 基于最大熵原理的强对流大风灾害致灾能力指数研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 曾翔宇,马力,朱克云.基于最大熵原理的强对流大风灾害致灾能力指数研究[J].高原山地气象研究,2021,41(4):113-118. |
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| 作者姓名： | 曾翔宇 马力 朱克云 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.成都信息工程大学大气科学学院，成都 610225 |
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| 摘 要： | 选取四川省强对流大风灾害天气个例，利用2009~2019年自动气象站2min平均风速数据，基于最大熵原理，推导出表征强对流大风灾害天气过程时间、空间、强度的概率分布函数。根据其分布函数，确定可以完整表征强对流大风灾害天气过程时间、空间、强度的气象参量。利用灰色关联度法，以强对流大风灾害的直接经济损失为参考，计算气象参量关联度，确定参量权重，构建出表征强对流大风灾害天气过程的致灾能力指数。结果表明:该指数可以正确反映强对流大风灾害过程的致灾能力强度，指数越大，致灾能力越强，反之越弱。
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| 关 键 词： | 强对流大风 最大熵原理 灰色关联度 致灾能力指数 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-05-08 |
Research on the Disaster-causing Ability Index of Convective Gale Disaster Based on the Principle of Entropy Maximization |
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| Affiliation: | 1.School of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China2.Sichuan Provincial Meteorological Service, 610072, China |
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| Abstract: | Selecting a case of severe convective gale disaster in Sichuan Province, the probability distribution function of time, space and intensity of severe convective gale disaster is derived on the basis of the maximum entropy principle by using the average wind speed data of automatic weather station from 2009 to 2019. According to its distribution function, the meteorological parameters that can fully characterize the time, space and intensity of strong convective gale disaster weather process are determined. The grey correlation degree method is used to calculate the correlation degree of meteorological parameters and determine the weight of parameters, taking the direct economic loss of strong convective gale disaster as a reference. The results show that this index can correctly reflect the intensity of disaster-causing ability of strong convective gale disaster process. The larger the index is, the stronger the disaster-causing ability is, and vice versa. |
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