| 西南涡加密资料同化对西南区域模式降水预报的影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 衡志炜,程晓龙.西南涡加密资料同化对西南区域模式降水预报的影响[J].高原山地气象研究,2018,38(2):1-8. |
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| 作者姓名： | 衡志炜 程晓龙 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国气象局成都高原气象研究所, 成都 610072; |
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| 基金项目： | 四川省气象局川气课题2014-青年-04国家自然科学基金项目(91337215)四川省科技计划项目(2016JY0046) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文基于2017年西南涡加密观测试验的四川省11个观测站的探空资料，利用西南区域9km和3km分辨率数值天气预报模式系统，开展了数值预报同化试验。同化试验每日06和18UTC各进行一次，持续40天。西南区域9km分辨率数值预报系统(SWC-WARMS)的模拟结果表明，加密探空观测资料对四川高空观测起到了补充。同化后可以改善模式初始场，有助于提升24小时降水预报的ETS评分，对小雨到大雨量级的BIAS评分也有一定的改善。西南区域3km分辨率系统得益于分辨率的提升，相比SWC-WARMS减小了大暴雨空报面积。同化加密探空观测可以提升降水预报的ETS评分，但空报面积也有所增加。
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| 关 键 词： | 观测试验 资料同化 降水检验 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-06-09 |
Influence of Assimilation of Southwest Vortex Intensive Observation on Precipitation Forecast of Southwestern Regional Model |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Institute of Plateau Meteorology, CMA, Chengdu 610072, China;2. Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the sounding data of 11 observatories in Sichuan Province during the Southwest Vortex Intensive Observation Experiment in 2017, this paper uses the regional 9km and 3km resolution numerical weather prediction model system to carry out numerical prediction assimilation experiments. The assimilation test was performed twice daily for 06 and 18 UTC, and last for 40 days. The simulation results of the 9km resolution numerical forecasting system (SWC-WARMS) show that the observed sounding data complements the upper air observations in Sichuan. After assimilation of intensive data, the initial field of the model can be improved, which helps to improve the ETS score of the 24-hour precipitation forecast, and also improves the BIAS score from light rain to heavy rainfall. Benefits from a higher grid resolution, the 3km resolution numerical forecasting system shows a reduction in the area of heavy rain, compared to SWC-WARMS. The assimilation of sounding data in the 3km resolution system can also improve the ETS score of precipitation forecasting, but the area of false alarm has increased. |
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