| 基于探空资料的绵阳机场雷暴潜势预报方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 张雯,陈权亮,张琳.基于探空资料的绵阳机场雷暴潜势预报方法[J].高原山地气象研究,2018,38(2):67-72. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张雯 陈权亮 张琳 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国民航飞行学院绵阳分院, 绵阳 621000; |
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| 摘 要： | 本文利用绵阳机场2010～2014年逐时气象观测资料、温江站探空资料与绵阳市闪电定位仪资料，通过探空资料计算各对流参数与雷暴发生的相关系数，筛选相关系数高的对流参数作为预报因子，并探讨各预报因子的物理意义。分别用事件概率回归(REEP)、Fisher判别分析以及指标叠加三种方法制作雷暴潜势预报，其中指标叠加法CSI评分最高，并且可以通过累加值N的大小来确定雷暴发生概率。用指标叠加法试报机场2015年6～8月雷暴，临界成功指数CSI=52.9%，击中率POD=81.8%，利用该方法对绵阳机场周边(市辖区范围)航路上的雷暴也有较好的预报能力。
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| 关 键 词： | 对流参数 事件概率回归 判别分析法 指标叠加法 CSI评分 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-05-17 |
Potential Forecast of Thunderstorm in Mianyang Airport Based on Sounding Data |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Civil Aviation Flight University of China, Mianyang Sub-College, Mianyang 621000, China;2. College of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China;3. Technological and Forecast Department of Sichuan Meteorological Bureau, Chengdu 610072, China |
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| Abstract: | By using the meteorological data observed by Mianyang Airport observatory hour by hour, sounding data and lightning location system data from Mianyang City, this article calculates the correlation coefficients between the thunderstorms and the convection parameters. The parameters with high correlation coefficients are selected as predictors and the physical meaning of each forecasting factor are discussed. By means of three methods of event probability regression analysis (REEP), Fisher discrimination and index superposition the potential forecast of thunderstorm in airport is studied. Among the three methods, the index superposition has the highest CSI score, and the thunderstorm occurrence probability can be determined by the magnitude of the accumulated value N. It tested the thunderstorms occur from June to August in Mianyang Airport by the index superposition, the CSI score is 52.9%, and the POD is 81.8%. It found that for thunderstorms around the airport on the route (municipal districts) has better forecasting ability by this method. |
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