| 近50年恩施市气温与浅层地温变化特征及其相关性分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 谭艳立,罗菊英,向远.近50年恩施市气温与浅层地温变化特征及其相关性分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2018,38(2):42-48. |
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| 作者姓名： | 谭艳立 罗菊英 向远 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 恩施土家族苗族自治州气象局, 恩施 445000; |
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| 摘 要： | 本文利用恩施市1966～2016年近50年的年平均气温、0～20cm平均地温资料，采用线性倾向估计、统计回归、Mann-Kendall等方法对恩施市年均气温和各层地温的年代际变化、季节变化、突变情况、地气温差变化等进行了研究分析。结果表明:恩施市近50年平均气温和各层地温总体呈显著性上升趋势；年均气温和地温的年代际平均阶段性特征明显，1966～1996年，气温和地温呈下降趋势，从1997年开始，气温和地温呈明显增暖趋势，2006～2016年年均气温和地温是近50年中最暖的10年。恩施市1966年到1980年代初期，气温和地温多波动，从1980年代初到2000年代初，平均气温和各层地温均呈现出明显变冷的趋势，地温变冷趋势更加明显；年均气温在1998年突变为增暖趋势，且近10年增暖趋势十分显著，而各层地温突变为增暖趋势是在2001年，较年均气温晚三年。各层地温与气温的季节变化趋势具有较好的一致性，气温和各层地温从1966～2016年升温幅度在春季最明显，夏季最不明显；春季平均气温较各层地温的升温速率均偏小，夏季平均气温和各层地温有增温趋势，但增温趋势不显著，秋季和冬季，土壤深度越深，气候倾向率越小，增温趋势越不显著。近50年恩施市地气温差为正，除0cm地气温差呈增大趋势外，5～20cm地气温差均呈减小趋势，且随着土壤深度的增加，地气温差减小的幅度越大。
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| 关 键 词： | 恩施市 气温 地温 特征 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-05-04 |
Analysis on Variation Characteristics and Correlation of Air and Shallow Ground Temperatures in Recent 50 Years of Enshi City |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Enshi Tujia and Miao Autonomous Prefecture Meteorological Bureau, Enshi 445000, China;2. Shizhu Tujia Autonomous Prefecture Meteorological Bureau, Shizhu 409100, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the data of annual mean air temperature (hereinafter referred to as “MAT”) and mean ground temperature (hereinafter referred to as “MGT”) at 0~20cm soil depths of Enshi of nearly 50 years from 1966 to 2016, taking methods of linear propensity estimation, statistical regression and Mann-Kendall, this paper analyzed the interdecadal and seasonal variation, abrupt change, and change of difference between both of MAT and MGT at different depths. The results showed that MAT and MGT at different depths mainly displayed significant increasing trends in past 50 years. The interdecadal MAT and MGT presented obvious periodic characteristics—a downtrend from the 1966~1996, a distinct uptrend since the 1997, and a peak in the decade of 2006~2016. Both MAT and MGT at different depths showed fluctuations during the period from the 1966 to the early 1980s; and followed a cooling trend, especially obvious with the MGT, from the early 1980s to the early 2000s. The MAT abruptly changed to a warming trend in 1998, and the trend was particularly distinct during the latest decade. And the abrupt change of MGT at different depths occurred in 2001, which was 3 years later than MAT. There were good consistency of the seasonal variation trends of MAT and MGT at different depths. The ascending range of MAT and MGT at different depths was most obvious in spring, and least obvious in summer. In spring, the ascending rate of MAT was larger than that of MGT at different depths, in summer, both MAT and MGT at different depths presented a warming trend, whereas which was not very obvious, in autumn and winter, with the increase of the soil depth,the climate tendency rate grew smaller, and warming trend less conspicuous. Difference between MAT and MGT was positive in last 50 years. Difference between MAT and MGT at 0cm depth showed an increasing trend, and that between MAT and MGT at 5~20cm depths had a decreasing trend, and the decreasing range was larger with the increase of soil depth. |
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