| 六个气候系统模式对西南地区2 m温度的预报检验分析 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 蔡宏珂,郑嘉雯,毛雅琴,衡志炜,曾琳.六个气候系统模式对西南地区2 m温度的预报检验分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2022,42(1):77-84. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 蔡宏珂 郑嘉雯 毛雅琴 衡志炜 曾琳 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1.成都信息工程大学大气科学学院/高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室, 成都 610225 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划（2021YFC3000902）；国家自然科学基金项目（42075087，U20A2097）；四川省中央引导地方科技发展专项（2020ZYD032） |
| |
| 摘 要： | 通过分析BCC_CSM1.1m、ECMWF_SYSTEM5、NCEP_CFSv2、FGOALS_f、FGOALS_s2、PCCSM4气候模式的模式初始误差、空间相关系数和时间距平相关系数,评估国内外6种气候预测模式在西南地区的预测能力.结果表明:FGOALS_s2和ECMWF_SYSTEM5模式的初始误差最大,FGOA...
|
| 关 键 词： | 2 m温度 季节预测 预报技巧 气候系统模式 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-08-04 |
Seasonal Prediction Performance of Temperature in Southwest China by Six Climate Prediction Models |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1.School of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology/Plateau Atmospheric and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610225, China2.Guangzhou Meteorological Observatory, Guangzhou 511430, China3.Institute of Plateau Meteorology, CMA, Chengdu/Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China |
| |
| Abstract: | The Model initial error, Temporal Correlation Coefficient, and Anomaly Correlation Coefficient are investigated by using the hindcasts from the six climate modes, including BCC_CSM1.1m, ECMWF_SYSTEM5, NCEP_CFSv2, FGOALS_f, FGOALS_s2, PCCSM4. The result shows that FGOALS_s2 and ECMWF_SYSTEM5 have the maximum initial error among six models, and FGOALS_f has the minimum error. The southwestern part of evaluated area has the smaller initial error compared with other parts. For the temperature forecast in eastern Sichuan Basin, ECMWF_SYSTEM5 has the highest sensitivity to terrain changes in Southwest China, and the root mean squares of the analytical field are small. The maximum (minimum) ACCs of the ECMWF_SYSTEM5 prediction decreases (increase) over time, especially from 2016 to 2018, which may be related to the upgrading of the European Center mode. The ACCs of ECMWF _ SYSTEM5 model ( southwest and east regions ) and BCC _ CSM1.1m model ( northwest region ) are higher. The ACCs of BCC_CSM1.1m, NCEP_CFSv2, and ECMWF_SYSTEM5 are little. The reasons for this difference still need to be further analyzed. From the perspective of the horizontal distribution of the TCCs predicted by six climate model for the temperature of southwest China in one month lead, the forecast effect of each model for the eastern part is better than that of the west. Due to its particularity, the climate models have poor treatment effects. PCCSM4 has higher TCCs on the plateau area, but its forecast effect is still poor for the transitional area, with large terrain undulations, between the basin and the plateau. Judging from the regional average TCCs in 1~6 months lead, FGOALS_f has the worst forecasting effect, and it shows a single-peak change trend with the increase of the lead months, and the other models show a multi-peak change trend. It can be seen from the trend of TCCs changes with the forecast time of 1~3 months, for each model, the area with a higher (low) TCCs of one-month forecast time, its value decreases (increases) with the increases of forecast time. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
|
| 点击此处可从《高原山地气象研究》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《高原山地气象研究》下载全文 |
|
