| 近30年东北春玉米发育期对气候变化的响应 |
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| 引用本文： | 穆佳,赵俊芳,郭建平.近30年东北春玉米发育期对气候变化的响应[J].应用气象学报,2014,25(6):680-689. |
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| 作者姓名： | 穆佳 赵俊芳 郭建平 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象科学研究院，北京 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(31371530)，中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201346) |
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| 摘 要： | 基于1981—2010年东北地区55个农业气象观测站发育期数据、16个气象站逐日气象资料，采用趋势变率、秩相关分析、主成分分析和结构方程模型等方法，分析了近30年东北春玉米关键发育期的变化特征，探讨了春玉米发育期对不同时间尺度气象因子的响应规律。结果表明:1981—2010年春玉米关键发育期 (播种期、抽雄期、成熟期) 均有延后趋势，大部分地区春玉米生长前期 (播种期—抽雄期) 日数减少，生长后期 (抽雄期—成熟期) 日数增加，全生育期日数增加。在绝大多数年份，春玉米播种期在温度适播期之后，成熟期在初霜日之前。近30年对东北春玉米生育期日数影响最大的气象要素为温度，主成分分析结果显示，年际尺度的升温、温度生长期的延长和作物生长期的高温对生育期日数影响显著；结构方程模型指出，作物生长期的最高温度和最低温度对生育期日数影响有间接效应，主导气象要素能够解释生育期日数变异的44%。全球变暖背景下，东北春玉米发育期变化是作物响应气候变化和农业生产适应气候变化的共同结果。
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| 关 键 词： | 东北地区 春玉米 关键发育期 生育期日数 |
| 收稿时间： | 4/3/2014 12:00:00 AM |
| 修稿时间： | 9/2/2014 12:00:00 AM |
Response of Spring Maize Growth Stage to Climate Change in Northeast China over the Past 30 Years |
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| Mu Ji,Zhao Junfang and Guo Jianping.Response of Spring Maize Growth Stage to Climate Change in Northeast China over the Past 30 Years[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2014,25(6):680-689. |
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| Authors: | Mu Ji Zhao Junfang and Guo Jianping |
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| Affiliation: | Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 10081 |
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| Abstract: | Northeast China is the main producing area of spring maize. Study on the response of spring maize growth stages to climate change has important significance for the agricultural production in Northeast China.Based on observations of spring maize at 55 agricultural meteorological stations, and daily meteorological data of 16 meteorological stations in Northeast China, combined with generally accepted indicators of agricultural meteorology, as well as the law of growth and development of spring maize, significant meteorological factors affecting the spring maize growth are determined at three time scales of inter-annual, potential growing season and crop growth stages. Variations of spring maize growth stages in Northeast China over the past 30 years are analyzed, using methods of trend rate, spearman correlation analysis, principal component analysis and structural equation modeling. Relationships between maize growth stages and climate change are explored. Finally, responses of spring maize growth stages to meteorological factors over the past 30 years are further analyzed at different time scales.The result shows that spring maize critical growth stages in Northeast China over the past 30 years are postponed. Compared to the stage of tasseling, delaying trends at sowing stage and maturation stage are obvious in most areas. The number of days decreases during the early maize growth stages, while both the late maize growth stages and growth stages extend. In most years, the sowing date of spring maize is later than suitable planting date, and the maturating date is earlier than the first frost date, reducing risks. Under climate warming, the late-maturating maize can be expanded in these areas in order to improve the utilization of thermal resource. Responses of spring maize growth stages to temperature factors are the most notable during the past 30 years.The result by principal component analysis shows that the increased temperature at the inter-annual timescale, the prolonged temperature growth period and the high temperature on the crop growth stages are more notable than other meteorological factors. While, in the structural equation modeling, effects of temperature factors on growth stages are partly indirect, and significant meteorological factors can explain 44% of variation in growth stages. Results deepen understanding effects of climate change on crop mechanism, and can be used as scientific basis for adaptation to climate change in the future. |
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| Keywords: | Northeast China spring maize critical growth stages the number of days of growth stages |
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