| 集合数值预报在洪水预报中的应用进展 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵琳娜,刘莹,党皓飞,姜迪,段青云,王彬雁,白雪梅,梁莉.集合数值预报在洪水预报中的应用进展[J].应用气象学报,2014,25(6):641-653. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵琳娜 刘莹 党皓飞 姜迪 段青云 王彬雁 白雪梅 梁莉 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室，北京 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（41475044），国家科技重大专项（2013ZX07304 001 1），中国气象局气候变化专项（CCSF201333） |
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| 摘 要： | 水文集合预报是近几年正在形成和发展的水文预报分支,其发展大致可分为两个阶段:第1阶段是1970年至20世纪末进行的长期径流预报,第2阶段从21世纪开始,主要学习气象数值预报中集合预报的概念在短期水文集合预报中的应用。目前,除了单一预报中心的集合预报系统在水文集合预报中应用外,多个预报中心的集合预报大集合也逐渐被应用于流域水文预报,甚至一些小流域的洪水预报。如利用TIGGE(THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble)集合预报驱动形成的大气-水文-水力的串联系统进行早期的洪水预警研究,将全球集合预报作为洪水模型输入的有限区域模式的初始条件和侧边界条件的研究。这些均表明,基于水文集合预报的洪水预报增加了预报附加值,并能够延长预警提前时间。以欧洲中期天气预报中心的欧洲洪水预警系统(EFAS)和美国NOAA的先进水文预报系统(AHPS)为代表,实现了集合预报在洪水中的实时业务预报,但仍存在数据处理和计算量大,以及如何基于集合水文预报做决策等问题。对于水文集合预报的前处理和后处理的各种技术已处于探索和验证阶段,如何更好地理解基于概率预报的洪水预警决策仍存在许多困难和挑战。
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| 关 键 词： | 集合预报 不确定性 水文集合预报 洪水预警 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014-07-16 |
| 修稿时间： | 9/1/2014 12:00:00 AM |
The Progress on Application of Ensemble Prediction to Flood Forecasting |
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| Zhao Linn,Liu Ying,Dang Haofei,Jiang Di,Duan Qingyun,Wang Binyan,Bai Xuemei and Liang Li.The Progress on Application of Ensemble Prediction to Flood Forecasting[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2014,25(6):641-653. |
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| Authors: | Zhao Linn Liu Ying Dang Haofei Jiang Di Duan Qingyun Wang Binyan Bai Xuemei and Liang Li |
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| Abstract: | Hydrological Ensemble Prediction is a forming and developing branch of hydrology. Its development can be roughly divided into two stages. The first stage is the longer term streamflow predictions stage from 1970 to the end of the 20th Century, and the second stage is to learn the concept of the numerical weather forecast applied to hydrological ensemble prediction at the beginning of the 21st Century. Compared with the single deterministic prediction meteorological, ensemble numerical forecasting can describe the uncertainly quantitatively. In recent ten years, the application of meteorological ensemble numerical forecasting to hydrological ensemble prediction on the warning of flood forecasting attaches great importance.In addition to single ensemble system, multiple ensemble system is gradually applied to hydrological ensemble forecast, even in some small basins. To study potential benefits of using the TIGGE database in early flood warning, an atmospheric hydrologic hydraulic coupled cascade system driven by TIGGE ensemble forecasts is set up. Some hydrological ensemble prediction systems use high resolution ECMWF EPS or limited area EPS as weather forecasts as initial and boundary conditions. Over the past decade, many studies show that forecasts based on hydrological ensemble prediction systems not only can add accuracy but also increase the warning lead time. The European Flood Alert System and the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services of NOAA realize real time prediction in flood forecast, but there are still some problems, such as large amount of calculation and massive data to handle.The various pre process and post process of ensemble forecasts of techniques are in the stage of exploration and verification. Besides, there are a great deal of challenges and difficulties in understanding how to make flood warning decisions based on probabilistic forecasts better. |
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| Keywords: | ensemble prediction uncertainty hydrological ensemble prediction flood warning |
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