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气候变化对我国小麦发育及产量可能影响的模拟研究
引用本文:张宇,王石立.气候变化对我国小麦发育及产量可能影响的模拟研究[J].应用气象学报,2000,11(3):264-270.
作者姓名:张宇  王石立
作者单位:1.北京大学地球物理系, 北京 100871
基金项目:国家攻关85-91 3 -0 3课题,国家研究( Country Study)的资助
摘    要:利用随机天气模型, 将气候模式对大气中CO2倍增时预测的气候情景与CERES-小麦模式相连接, 研究了气候变化对我国冬小麦和春小麦生产的可能影响.结果表明, 气候变化后小麦发育将加快, 生育期缩短, 冬小麦平均缩短7.3天, 春小麦平均缩短10.5天, 春小麦生育期缩短的绝对数和相对数均大于冬小麦.籽粒产量呈下降趋势, 冬小麦平均减产7%~8%, 雨养条件下比水分适宜时减产幅度略大.春小麦的减产幅度大于冬小麦, 水分适宜时平均减产17.7%, 雨养时平均减产31.4%.

关 键 词:气候变化    小麦发育及产量    作物模式    随机天气模型    气候模式
收稿时间:1999-04-26

Research on the Possible Effects of Climate Change on Growth and Yield of Wheat in China
Zhang Yu.Research on the Possible Effects of Climate Change on Growth and Yield of Wheat in China[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2000,11(3):264-270.
Authors:Zhang Yu
Affiliation:1.Department of Geophysics, Peking University, Beijing 1008712.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081
Abstract:WT5BZ]The possible effects of climate change on winter wheat and spring wheat of China are analyzed by using the stochastic weather generator and combining the CERES wheat model with the climate change scenarios predicted by the climate model with the amount of CO 2 doubled. The results indicate that owing to climate change, the growing season of wheat is shortened, with the growing seasons of winter wheat and spring wheat shortened by 7.3 days and 10.5 days, respectively. Both the absolute and relative values of the shortened quantity for spring wheat are greater than those for winter wheat. Furthermore, the yield decreased due to the climate change. Winter wheat yield decreased by 7%-8% and decreased more greatly in the rainfed condition than in the optimal water condition. Spring wheat yield decreased more greatly than winter wheat, with a decrease of 17.7% in the optimal water condition and 31.4% in the rainfed condition.WT5HZ]
Keywords:Climate change    Development and yield of wheat    Crop simulation model    Stochastic weather generator    Climate model
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