| 江汉和江南西部春玉米涝渍指标及风险评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨宏毅,霍治国,杨建莹,张桂香,吴立,范雨娴.江汉和江南西部春玉米涝渍指标及风险评估[J].应用气象学报,2017,28(2):237-246. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨宏毅 霍治国 杨建莹 张桂香 吴立 范雨娴 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室, 北京 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | “十二五”国家科技支撑计划（2012BAD20B02） |
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| 摘 要： | 以江汉和江南西部地区春玉米为研究对象，利用研究区域内57个气象站1961-2012年的逐日降水量资料、春玉米生育期资料和春玉米涝渍灾情资料，筛选春玉米不同生育时期的涝渍灾害样本。采用多元线性回归分析方法，定量分析当前过程降水量和前期降水量对春玉米涝渍灾害的影响，并据此构建当量降水量。基于正态分布的Lilliefors检验和t-分布区间估计方法，计算不同生育时期、不同等级涝渍灾害的当量降水量指标阈值，由此构建该区域春玉米不同生育时期的涝渍灾害等级指标并进行独立样本验证。在此基础上，利用信息扩散理论风险评估方法，计算各站点的春玉米涝渍致灾风险指数。结果表明:当前过程降水量和前2旬降水量对该区域春玉米涝渍灾害有显著性影响；构建的区域春玉米涝渍等级指标能够较好地反映实际受灾情况，指标验证结果与历史记录有较高一致性；出苗-拔节期和拔节-抽雄期发生春玉米涝渍灾害的风险相对较低，抽雄-成熟期为春玉米涝渍灾害的高风险时期，高风险区域主要位于湖北省恩施市、宜昌市西南部、荆州市西南部以及湖南省张家界市北部。
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| 关 键 词： | 江汉和江南西部 春玉米 当量降水量 涝渍灾害等级指标 风险评估 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016/11/23 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2017/1/20 0:00:00 |
Indicators and Risk of Spring Corn Waterlogging Disaster in Jianghan and West Region of Jiangnan |
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| Yang Hongyi,Huo Zhiguo,Yang Jianying,Zhang Guixiang,Wu Li and Fan Yuxian.Indicators and Risk of Spring Corn Waterlogging Disaster in Jianghan and West Region of Jiangnan[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2017,28(2):237-246. |
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| Authors: | Yang Hongyi Huo Zhiguo Yang Jianying Zhang Guixiang Wu Li and Fan Yuxian |
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| Affiliation: | 1.State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 1000812.Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 2100443.Guangzhou Agriculture Meteorology and Climate Center, Guangzhou 5114304.Fujian Meteorology Service Center, Fuzhou 350001 |
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| Abstract: | Current precipitation process and antecedent precipitation have important influences on spring corn waterlogging disaster, and therefore establishing level indicators of spring corn waterlogging disaster is of great scientific significance on real-time dynamic disaster monitoring, early warning and risk assessment. Analyzing the risk of spring corn waterlogging disaster provides technical support to regional preventing disasters and reducing damages, adjusting plantation structure, establishing agricultural insurance countermeasures, as well as business development, service and application of waterlogging disaster monitoring. It ensures national food security and guarantees sustained and steady development of agriculture production. Taking spring corn in Jianghan and west region of Jiangnan as research foci, data of different growth stages at 57 stations in the study area from 1961 to 2012 are investigated, which consist of daily precipitation data, spring corn growth period data and waterlogging disaster data. Current process precipitation and antecedent precipitation''s influence on spring corn waterlogging disaster is quantitatively analyzed by using multivariate linear regression analysis, and hereby, "equivalent precipitation" is established. Based on normal distribution Lilliefors test and t-distribution interval estimation method, equivalent precipitation indicator thresholds of different waterlogging disaster levels during different growth stages are calculated. Then, spring corn waterlogging disaster level indicators during different growth stages are determined by thresholds, and verified by independent samples. On this basis, spring corn waterlogging disaster risk index of each station is calculated using risk assessment method based on information diffuse theory. Main results are as follows. First, in the study area, precipitation of current process and the first two ten-day have significant influence on spring corn waterlogging disaster with weight factors coefficients being 0.725, 0.171 and 0.104, respectively. Second, the equivalent precipitation indicator thresholds of spring corn waterlogging disaster of light, moderate and severe level are 56, 93 mm (without severe level) in seeding-jointing stage; 65, 104, 161 mm in jointing-tasseling stage; and 74, 115, 182 mm in tasseling-maturing stage. The spring corn waterlogging disaster level indicators can well reflect actual disaster situation, and there is high consistency between verification result and history record. Third, the risk of spring corn waterlogging disaster is relatively low during seeding-jointing stage and jointing-tasseling stage, by contrast tasseling-maturing stage is a high-risk period during which high-risk areas mainly include Enshi, southwest of Yichang, southwest of Jingzhou, and north of Zhangjiajie. |
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| Keywords: | Jianghan and west region of Jiangnan spring corn equivalent precipitation waterlogging disaster level indicators risk assessment |
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