| 改进的物理过程参数化对台风路径数值预报的影响 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 陈德辉,王诗文.改进的物理过程参数化对台风路径数值预报的影响[J].应用气象学报,1996,7(1):1-8. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 陈德辉 王诗文 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1.国家气象中心 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家科委85－906项目基金 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 文章介绍了国家气象中心的台风路径数值预报试验模式和新开发的改进物理过程参数化方案，对1992年的5个台风个例初步试验结果表明:改进物理过程参数化模式对台风路径和台风强度的预报比简单物理过程模式有明显提高，24 h和48 h台风中心位置预报误差分别为188 km和337 km，比原模式减小38 km和190 km；48 h台风中心气压与实况之差平均减小3 hPa。
|
| 关 键 词： | 物理过程参数化 台风路径 数值预报 |
Performance of Parameterization of Sub-scale Physical Processes in Numerical Model and Its Effects on Typhoon Track Forecastings |
| |
| Chen Dehui,Wang Shiwen,Wang Houjun.Performance of Parameterization of Sub-scale Physical Processes in Numerical Model and Its Effects on Typhoon Track Forecastings[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,1996,7(1):1-8. |
| |
| Authors: | Chen Dehui Wang Shiwen Wang Houjun |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1.(National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081) |
| |
| Abstract: | A new package of parameterization of sub-scale physical processes has been performed for the model of typhoon track prediction at Numerical Meteorological Center (NMC),Beijing. Five cases of typhoons, which happened during the summer 1992(ELI and JANIS), were chosen for the numerical simulations. In comparison of the results obtained by the performed physical processes schemes with those obtained by the old simpler schemes, it is shown that either in typhoon track forecasting or in typhoon intensity prediction, the new schemes are superior to the simpler schemes. In fact, the mean errors of 24h and 48 h typhoon central position forecastings are 188 km and 337 km for the new schemes, respectively, and 226 km and 446 km for the simpler schemes respectively. The mean deviation of 48 h predicted central pressures from the observed ones is 23 hpa for the new scheme, and 26 hpa for the simpler scheme. |
| |
| Keywords: | Parameterization of physical processes Typhoon track Numerical forecasting |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《应用气象学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《应用气象学报》下载全文 |
|
