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基于水稻生长模型的气象影响评价和产量动态预测
引用本文:帅细强,王石立,马玉平,李迎春.基于水稻生长模型的气象影响评价和产量动态预测[J].应用气象学报,2008,19(1):71-81.
作者姓名:帅细强  王石立  马玉平  李迎春
作者单位:1.湖南省气象科学研究所, 长沙 410007
基金项目:中国气象局科技攻关项目 , 科技部公益性研究专项基金
摘    要:在对国际先进的水稻生长模型ORYZA2000进行模型调试、验证, 实现本地化的基础上, 以双季稻发育速率参数为主, 结合地形、气候、水稻熟性分布和当地生产实际, 将江南双季稻区按发育参数划分为7个区域, 实现了ORYZA2000模式在我国江南双季稻地区的区域应用。利用该模型进行了不同年份气象条件影响定量评估的应用试验, 评价结果与实际符合, 定量客观。探讨了利用机理性作物生长模式动态预测产量的方法。通过建立不同发育期的水稻模拟生物量与相对气象产量的相关统计模型, 结合趋势产量预测, 实现了地区级双季稻不同发育期的产量动态预测。外推检验结果表明, 各地早晚稻不同发育期的产量动态预测模型平均误差为4.8%~6.1%, 可初步用于业务。

关 键 词:ORYZA2000    江南双季稻    气象影响评价    产量动态预测
收稿时间:2006-12-27
修稿时间:2007-10-22

Assessment of Meteorologic Condition Effects and Dynamic Yield Forecasting Based on Rice Growth Model
Shuai Xiqiang,Wang Shili,Ma Yuping,Li Yingchun.Assessment of Meteorologic Condition Effects and Dynamic Yield Forecasting Based on Rice Growth Model[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2008,19(1):71-81.
Authors:Shuai Xiqiang  Wang Shili  Ma Yuping  Li Yingchun
Affiliation:1.Meteorological Science Institute of Hunan Province, Changsha 4100072.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 1000813.Meteorological Science Institute of Jiangxi Province, Nanchang 330046
Abstract:Using daily meteorological data and observation on rice phenology and biomass for the thirty-one agrometeorological stations of the double cropping rice region in the middle Yangtze River Valley from 1981 to 2004, based on adjusting, adaptation and validating for rice growth Model ORYZA2000, the double cropping rice region in the middle Yangtze River Valley is divided into seven areas for the phenological parameters in the model according to the phenological development rate, combined with climate, landform and genetic characteristics of rice. The application of ORYZA2000 in the middle Yangtze River Valley is implemented. Using the regionalized parameter of the crop, the simulation effect of rice phenology and biomass in early rice and late rice is simulated and tested in the growth model. The average errors of samples of fitting verification of anthesis and autumn of early rice and late rice are 3—6 days. And the ones of extrapolated samples are 3—5 days. The average relative errors of samples of fitting verification of the total aboveground biomass and weights of storage organs of autumn of early rice are 12.8% and 20.1% respectively. And ones of extrapolated samples are 10.1% and 19.9%. The average relative errors of samples of fitting verification of the total aboveground biomass and weights of storage organs of autumn of late rice are 8.5% and 6.0%. And ones of extrapolated samples are 2.9% and 3.5%. Test of assessment of meteorological condition effects in different years is carried out using the regionalization of the crop growth model. Using the relative value of annual change of the advance of development and biomass comparing with average ones in the recent three years and the previous year, evaluation of the agrometeorological condition is made (e.g., the phenology is retardation or quickens, and the biomass increases or decreases). The changes of the development stage and influence on biomass and yield of early rice in low temperature in 2002 and late rice in high temperature in 2003 are simulated by the model. The simulation results and assessments are consistent with actual conditions. Several correlation models between simulated dry matter weight of rice at various development stages (panicle initiation, flowering, kernel milky maturity, maturity) and relatively climatic yield for each station are developed, and then rice yield could be forecasted combining the prediction of yield trend. To calculate correlation coefficient significance test of the area models by t test, 23% early rice and 27% late rice yield forecasting by the models at various development stages pass significance level of 0.10, others pass significance level of 0.05, 0.01 or 0.001. With the advance development, significance level of some models raises 0.10 to 0.05. The average relative errors of rice yield forecasting at various development stages for all stations based on rice growth model are 4.8%—6.1%, the results are satisfied.
Keywords:ORYZA2000  double cropping rice in the middle Yangtze River Valley  meteorological effect assess ment  dynamic yields forecasting
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