| 基于WCSODS的小麦渍害模型及其在灾害预警上的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 石春林,金之庆.基于WCSODS的小麦渍害模型及其在灾害预警上的应用[J].应用气象学报,2003,14(4):462-468. |
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| 作者姓名： | 石春林 金之庆 |
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| 作者单位： | 江苏省农业科学院, 南京 210014 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家"十五"科技攻关计划"农林重大病虫害和农业气象灾害的预警及控制技术研究"之"农业气象灾害预警技术研究"(2001BA509B13)和国家自然科学基金重点项目(30030090)共同资助. |
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| 摘 要： | 在WCSODS（小麦模拟优化决策系统）中增加了过量土壤水对小麦光合作用、干物质分配、叶片衰老等影响模块，实现了渍害条件下对冬小麦生长和产量的模拟。用试验资料和区域统计单产对模型进行了检验，结果表明:模拟误差在10%以内。灵敏度分析的结果亦表明:随着渍水持续天数的增加，小麦渍害加重，10 d渍水对产量影响不大，而30 d渍水可造成减产7%~32%；当渍水天数相同时，以孕穗期的渍害对产量影响最大；灌浆期、拔节期次之，冬前分蘖期的影响较小。这与当地小麦专家的看法相一致，说明小麦渍害模型具有一定的合理性。利用本模型和南京、南通两地的历史气象和产量资料，对大面积小麦平均单产进行了试预报，结果基本令人满意。
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| 关 键 词： | 渍害 冬小麦 生长模拟 WCSODS 预警 |
| 收稿时间： | 2003-04-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年4月6日 |
A WCSODS- based Model for Simulating Wet Damage for Winter Wheat in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtse River |
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| Shi Chunlin,Jin Zhiqing.A WCSODS- based Model for Simulating Wet Damage for Winter Wheat in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtse River[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2003,14(4):462-468. |
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| Authors: | Shi Chunlin Jin Zhiqing |
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| Affiliation: | Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Nanjing 210014 |
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| Abstract: | The correction models of the effect of excess soil water on photosynthetic prod uction, partition of dry matter and green leaf senescence are introduced into th e WCSODS to simulate the impacts of soil waterlogging on wheat growth. The modul es are validated with experimental data and regional statistical yields, and the results show that the simulated errors are less than 10%. The sensitivity analy sis also shows that the wet damage to yield increases gradually with the increas ing waterlogging duration. Ten-day waterlogging has little effect on yields, bu t when the waterlogging duration reaches 30 days, yields reduce 7% to 32%. For th e same waterlogging duration, the injury at the booting stage is the greatest, l ess at filling stage and elongation stage, and the least at tillering stage. The se results are in accordance with the opinions of local wheat experts. The early warning of wet damage is also conducted and tested by using the model and the d aily meteorological and yield data, and the results are reasonable. |
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| Keywords: | Waterlogging Winter wheat Growth simulation WCS ODS Early warning |
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