| 国家级现代农业气象业务技术进展 |
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| 引用本文： | 侯英雨,张蕾,吴门新,宋迎波,郭安红,赵秀兰.国家级现代农业气象业务技术进展[J].应用气象学报,2018,29(6):641-656. |
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| 作者姓名： | 侯英雨 张蕾 吴门新 宋迎波 郭安红 赵秀兰 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家气象中心, 北京 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201506001） |
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| 摘 要： | 农业气象业务技术是开展农业气象服务的基础和前提，因此，农业气象业务技术的研发一直是国家级农业气象业务服务的核心工作。近年来，国家级农业气象业务技术已逐步迈向精细化、定量化，涵盖了农业气象监测评价、作物产量预报、农业气象灾害监测评估与影响预报、农用天气预报、农林病虫害发生发展气象等级预报等诸多领域。随着农业气象业务技术的发展，支撑农业气象服务的客观产品更加丰富和多样化，既有站点产品，又有格点产品，涵盖了日、周、月、季、年等不同时间尺度。以农业气象指标、数理统计模型、作物生长模拟、卫星遥感、地理信息系统、大数据等技术为核心的国家级农业气象业务平台（CAgMSS）已成为全国农业气象业务系统的重要品牌。面向现代农业发展对气象服务日益增长的需求，精细化、精准化的农业气象灾害监测与风险评估技术、作物长势评估与产量预报综合集成技术、农业应对气候变化技术以及农业气象大数据挖掘与人工智能技术将是未来国家级农业气象业务技术发展的重点。
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| 关 键 词： | 农业气象监测评估 作物产量预报 农业气象灾害 农用天气预报 农业气象业务平台 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018/8/13 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2018/9/24 0:00:00 |
Advances of Modern Agrometeorological Service and Technology in China |
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| Hou Yingyu,Zhang Lei,Wu Menxin,Song Yingbo,Guo Anhong and Zhao Xiulan.Advances of Modern Agrometeorological Service and Technology in China[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2018,29(6):641-656. |
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| Authors: | Hou Yingyu Zhang Lei Wu Menxin Song Yingbo Guo Anhong and Zhao Xiulan |
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| Affiliation: | National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | Agrometeorological operational technology is the foundation and premise of modern agrometeorological service in China. The development of agrometeorological science and technology is always the core for national agrometeorological service. In recent years, national agrometeorological service grows quickly with high quality, and now it covers various fields such as agrometeorological monitoring and assessment, crop yield forecast, agrometeorological disasters monitoring and prediction, meteorological forecasting of disease and pests, and weather forecast for agricultural activities. With the development of agrometeorological technology, more and more numerical products are proposed to support agrometeorological services, e.g., daily, weekly, monthly and yearly products at both stations and grid points. Advances of agrometeorological service and technology are illustrated here, involving fields of agrometeorological monitoring and assessment, crop yield forecast, agrometeorological disasters monitoring and prediction, meteorological forecasting of disease and pests, weather forecast for agricultural activities and agrometeorological service system. Agrometeorological monitoring and assessment includes timely automatic monitoring of soil humidity, assessment of climate suitability based on temperature, precipitation, radiation and integrated functions, quantified assessment of crop growing situation based on three ways (i.e., field observation, remote sensing (RS) monitoring and crop model simulation). Several grades are defined to classify the level of crop growing. Crop yield forecast is mainly upon mathematical statistics methods based on relations between crop yield and key affecting factors, crop model simulation based on growing mechanism process for crops, and RS estimation based on relationships between yield and vegetation index. For some inevitable limitations in each method, multiple methods are integrated to forecast crop yield and the accuracy is generally above 99% during 2008-2017. Agrometeorological disasters monitoring, and prediction are always implemented in some ways, including classification based on single and multiple agrometeorological index, statistical analysis based on field survey, RS monitoring and crop model simulation. Risk analysis is the prerequisite for disasters assessment, involving hazard, vulnerability, sensibility and prevention. Meteorological forecasting of disease and pests currently refers to the linking models of meteorological factors and the occurrence of disease and pests. Key technologies for agricultural activities related weather forecast are the selection of index for key time farming, e.g., planting, flowering and harvest. China Agrometeorological Service System (CAgMSS), in which agrometeorological index, mathematical statistical models, crop growth simulation, RS, GIS, agrometeorological big data and other technologies integrated, is the highlight of national agrometeorological service and extended to provincial agrometeorological institutions. With an increasing demand of modern agricultural development, the meticulous and accurate agricultural meteorological disaster monitoring with risk assessment technology, the integrated technology of crop growth assessment and yield forecast, agricultural climate change impact, big data mining and artificial intelligence technology will become the focus of agrometeorological service in the coming decade. |
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| Keywords: | agrometeorological monitoring and assessment crop yield forecast agrometeorological disasters weather forecast for agricultural activities CAgMSS |
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