| 我国冬季气温与影响因子关系的年代际变化 |
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| 引用本文： | 李维京,李怡,陈丽娟,赵振国.我国冬季气温与影响因子关系的年代际变化[J].应用气象学报,2013,24(4):385-396. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李维京 李怡 陈丽娟 赵振国 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.国家气候中心中国气象局气候研究开放实验室，北京 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 资助项目：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目（2013CB430203），科技部科技支撑项目（2009BAC51B05），国家自然科学基金项目（41275073） |
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| 摘 要： | 利用1951—2012年冬季全国160个站月平均气温以及NCEP/NACR再分析资料和海温、北极海冰等资料，分析了我国冬季气温及其关键影响因子的年代际变化特征，重点研究了关键影响因子对我国冬季气温影响关系的年代际变化。研究表明:我国冬季气温在1985年之前处于冷期，之后为暖期; 我国冬季气温异常与影响因子的关系发生了显著的年代际变化，而且影响因子之间的关系也发生了显著的年代际变化。针对这种年代际变化的基本事实，提出针对冷期和暖期中不同影响因子与冬季气温的关系分时段建立冬季气温的多因子回归预测模型，可以反映冬季气温及其影响因子关系的年代际变化特征。正确的预测策略是利用相同年代际背景下预测对象与预测因子的时间序列资料建立预测模型，以确保预测模型中反映的预测对象与预测因子关系的稳定性，进而保持较高的拟合及预测水平。
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| 关 键 词： | 冬季气温 影响因子 东亚冬季风 年代际变化 |
| 收稿时间： | 2013-03-20 |
Inter decadal Variability of the Relationship Between Winter Temperature in China and Its Impact Factors |
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| Li Weijing,Li Yi,Chen Lijuan and Zhao Zhenguo.Inter decadal Variability of the Relationship Between Winter Temperature in China and Its Impact Factors[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2013,24(4):385-396. |
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| Authors: | Li Weijing Li Yi Chen Lijuan and Zhao Zhenguo |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, CMA, Beijing 1000812.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | The inter decadal variation characteristics of winter temperature in China and its key impact factors are analyzed by using monthly temperature data of 160 stations in China, NCEP/NACR reanalysis data, extended reconstructed sea surface temperatures data, and Arctic sea ice extent data from 1951 to 2012, focusing on the inter decadal changes of the relationship between key influencing factors and winter temperature in China. Results show that the winter temperature in China before 1985 is in a cold period, and then a warm period follows. A significant inter decadal variability has occurred for winter temperature anomalies. The scope and intensity of warming tendency has weakened significantly from 2004 to 2011. |
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| Keywords: | winter temperature impact factors East Asian winter monsoon inter decadal variability |
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