| 华北及周边地区夏季分区客观降水预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵翠光,赵声蓉.华北及周边地区夏季分区客观降水预报[J].应用气象学报,2011,22(5):558-566. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵翠光 赵声蓉 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.南京信息工程大学，南京 210044 |
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| 基金项目： | 公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201106010），2011年中国气象局基础建设项目“精细化要素预报用户支撑环境改进与推广应用” |
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| 摘 要： | 在降水客观分区的基础上，对华北及周边地区进行夏季降水预报。利用2006—2008年的6—8月T213资料和相应时段的实况资料，通过概率回归降水等级方案建模，对2009年和2010年6—8月进行了试报。结果表明:分区建模的降水预报与单站建模预报相比，TS评分在不同时效、不同量级上均有提高，并且在空报和漏报上有较大改善，特别是大量级降水预报改善明显。从因子分析上看，分区建模较单站建模所选因子更丰富，利用了模式产品的有用信息，因此做出了更好的预报。分区建模与模式降水预报的对比分析表明:分区建模的降水预报效果好于模式直接降水预报，空报现象改善明显。
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| 关 键 词： | 华北及周边地区 夏季降水预报 客观分区 区域建模 |
| 收稿时间： | 2011-02-16 |
| 修稿时间： | 8/1/2011 12:00:00 AM |
The Regional Objective Precipitation Forecast in North China and Adjacent Areas in Summer |
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| Zhao Cuiguang and Zhao Shengrong.The Regional Objective Precipitation Forecast in North China and Adjacent Areas in Summer[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2011,22(5):558-566. |
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| Authors: | Zhao Cuiguang and Zhao Shengrong |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 2100442.National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | North China is one of three major summer rainfall areas in eastern China. Precipitation over North China shows the characteristics of obvious emergency and locality. According to the statistics, 80%—90% precipitation occurs in June—August. Sometimes daily precipitation of a rainstorm can account for 50% precipitation amount of that month. Therefore, effective forecast is crucial especially for larger magnitude precipitation. Objective precipitation forecast is a difficult problem in NWP products interpretation at present. Objective precipitation forecast models are always established station by station, but larger magnitude precipitation is rare event for individual station. It is difficult to establish an effective forecast equation for an individual station. Precipitation intensity, spatial and temporal distribution over North China has its own particularity. Due to the regional characteristic, it is difficult to summarize in one model. Objective partitioning can be used in establishment of precipitation forecast model. Similar samples in the weather region are combined together. Regional forecast model is more stable than single-station forecast model, as the number of large-class precipitation samples increases.Seven weather divisions for summer precipitation over North China and adjacent areas are developed through Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) method, defined by the large contours of the seven REOF models. Objective precipitation forecast is based on probability regression precipitation categorical forecast. First, original precipitation is converted to 0 and 1 corresponding categories, and then forecast equations of different categories are developed to calculate each criterions. In real forecasting, the categorical precipitation will be determined through the criterion and the probability forecast of that category. Based on the daily precipitation data of station and T213 NWP products during the summer of 2006—2008, precipitation forecast model over North China and adjacent is established, which covers the domain (32°—42°N, 110°—124°E), including a total of 703 weather stations. Precipitation experiment is carried out for the summer of 2009 and 2010, and analysis of the forecast result indicates that regional method is better than single station method, especially for heavy precipitation. Regional model handles more factors than the single station model, so regional model makes a better prediction. Comparing to model direct forecast, regional forecast result is better, which reduces empty report obviously. |
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| Keywords: | North China and adjacent areas precipitation in summer objective region regional model |
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