| 我国东北地区冬季气温变化的东亚冬季风背景 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘实,隋波,涂钢,冯喜媛.我国东北地区冬季气温变化的东亚冬季风背景[J].应用气象学报,2014,25(1):11-21. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘实 隋波 涂钢 冯喜媛 |
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| 作者单位： | 吉林省气象科学研究所/中高纬度环流系统与东亚季风研究开放实验室，长春 130062 |
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| 基金项目： | 资助项目：国家科技支撑计划项目（2009BAC51B02），公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY200906017），中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用项目（CMAGJ2011M14） |
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| 摘 要： | 利用中国气象局国家气象信息中心1961—2011年我国东北地区72个气象站月平均气温资料及NCEP/NCAR月平均海平面气压、500 hPa高度场及200 hPa与850 hPa风场再分析资料，对东亚冬季风强度与我国东北地区冬季气温序列经去除线性趋势处理后的变化特征进行对比分析。结果表明:去除线性趋势后，东亚冬季风强度与我国东北地区冬季气温序列的相关系数为-0.69，较原始序列更为显著；两者变化的阶段性较为同步，我国东北地区冬季气温于2004年已转入低温阶段，这与东亚冬季风同时转为偏强阶段关系密切；两者均存在20年左右的长周期，同样存在相近的阶段性短周期；我国东北地区冬季气温的增温变化趋势在1986年前后的增暖性气候突变中起重要作用。东亚冬季风强度与我国东北地区冬季气温年代际信号的相关系数达-0.86，较原始序列年代际相关更为显著；两者的年代际变化存在21.5年左右的共同准周期。东亚冬季风强度与我国东北地区冬季气温的年际变化序列存在4年左右的共同准周期。我国东北地区冬季气温的年际和年代际异常存在与东亚冬季风相关联的200 hPa东亚急流、500 hPa东亚大槽、乌拉尔高压、850 hPa风场、地面西伯利亚高压等的异常背景。
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| 关 键 词： | 我国东北地区 东亚冬季风 冬季气温 年际变化 年代际变化 |
| 收稿时间： | 2013-07-10 |
The East Asian Winter Monsoon Background on the Variation of Winter Air Temperature in Northeast China |
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| Liu Shi,Sui Bo,Tu Gang and Feng Xiyuan.The East Asian Winter Monsoon Background on the Variation of Winter Air Temperature in Northeast China[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2014,25(1):11-21. |
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| Authors: | Liu Shi Sui Bo Tu Gang and Feng Xiyuan |
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| Affiliation: | Institute of Meteorological Sciences of Jilin Province, Laboratory of Research for Middle-high Latitude Circulation System and East Asian Monsoon, Changchun 130062 |
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| Abstract: | Using monthly mean temperature data from 72 meteorological stations in Northeast China of temperature dataset established by National Meteorological Information Center of CMA and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1961 to 2011, two sequences of the East Asian winter monsoon intensity index and winter air temperature in Northeast China are processed, removing the linear trend. The contrastive analysis is made on the variation characteristics between the winter monsoon intensity index and the winter air temperature in Northeast China.The result shows that two sequences change synchronously and the correlation coefficient after removal of linear trend is -0.69, which is greater than that between two original sequences. Under the background of global warming, the increasing trend of winter air temperature in Northeast China makes this relationship become weaker. When Northeast China enters the cold phase in 2004, the East Asian winter monsoon intensity index also enhancs at the same time. The warming trend of winter air temperature plays an important role in the warming climate abrupt change in 1986.Correlation coefficient between the inter decadal signals of the East Asian winter monsoon intensity index and the winter air temperature in Northeast China is -0.86, which is also more obvious compared with the original sequences. A quasi period of about 21.5 years is found for the inter decadal variation, the winter air temperature in Northeast China is in the low stage, and the East Asian winter monsoon is in strong phase of this period at present. A 4 year quasi period is found for the inter annual variability.The inter annual and inter decadal anomalies of the winter air temperature in Northeast China are related with the abnormal background of some systems such as the East Asia westerly jet stream at 200 hPa, the East Asia trough and the high in Ural at 500 hPa, wind at 850 hPa, and the Siberian high on the ground associated with the East Asian winter monsoon. During the inter decadal low temperature stage, the westerly jet moves further south at 200 hPa, the Siberia high and the East Asia trough is stronger at 500 hPa, the Siberia anticyclone is abnormally stronger, and there is the cyclonic circulation anomaly in western continental Europe at 850 hPa and significant northerly wind anomaly in the north region of the Okhotsk Sea. All of these anomalies reflect the inter decadal stronger characteristic of the East Asian winter monsoon, and vice versa. The possible physical contact between the East Asian winter monsoon intensity and the winter air temperature in Northeast China may be consistent associated with inter decadal on the inter annual timescale. |
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| Keywords: | Northeast China East Asian winter monsoon winter air temperature inter annual climate variation inter decadal climate variation |
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