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东北地区玉米热量指数的预测模型研究
引用本文:郭建平,田志会,张涓涓.东北地区玉米热量指数的预测模型研究[J].应用气象学报,2003,14(5):626-633.
作者姓名:郭建平  田志会  张涓涓
作者单位:1.中国气象科学研究院, 北京 100081
基金项目:国家科技部“十五”攻关计划“农林重大病虫害和农业气象灾害的预警控制技术研究”之“农业气象灾害预警技术研究”( 2 0 0 1BA5 0 9B 1 3 )课题,科技部社会公益性研究专项资金项目“华北干旱,东北低温冷害监测预警技术研究”共同资助
摘    要:利用1961~2000年逐月气温资料计算了东北地区分省和全区玉米的热量指数。通过对热量指数和大气环流资料的统计分析,建立了6个预测玉米热量指数的模型,各模型都能较好地预测东北地区各省及全区的玉米生长发育期间的热量状况。检验结果可以看出,所有模型的准确率较高,且稳定性较好,6个模型预测玉米热量指数的平均相对误差都在7%以下,说明了各模型都具有较好的预测能力。其中辽宁省的相对误差最小,平均在2%以下,预测效果最好,黑龙江省的平均误差最大,也都在4.5%~7%。

关 键 词:东北地区    玉米    热量指数    预测模型
收稿时间:2003-06-18
修稿时间:2003年6月18日

Forecasting Models of Heat Index for Corn in Northeast China
Guo Jianping,Tian Zhihui,Zhang Juanjuan.Forecasting Models of Heat Index for Corn in Northeast China[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2003,14(5):626-633.
Authors:Guo Jianping  Tian Zhihui  Zhang Juanjuan
Affiliation:1.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 1000812.Beijing Agricultural College, Beijing 102206
Abstract:Using the mean monthly air temperature from 1961 to 2000, the corn heat indexes in 3 provinces and whole Northeast China are calculated. Based on the statistic analysis between heat index and atmospheric circulation data, 6 models of forecasting availably the corn heat index are set up. Each model can be used to forecast heat status in the growth and development period of corn in each province and whole Northeast China. Test shows that the accuracy of all models is higher and the stability is preferable. The mean relative error of 6 models is lower than 7%. These models show the better forecasting ability. In which, the least relative error is in Liaoning province, the mean value is lower than 2%, and the forecast effect is best. The greatest relative error is in Heilongjiang province, the mean value is from 4.5% to 7%.
Keywords:Northeast  China  Corn  Heat index  Forecasting model
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