| 华东地区热带气旋年频数异常的分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 蒋乐贻,应明.华东地区热带气旋年频数异常的分析[J].应用气象学报,2002,13(1):88-95. |
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| 作者姓名： | 蒋乐贻 应明 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海台风研究所, 上海 200030 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家“九五”攻关项目“我国短期气候预测”( 98 90 8 0 5 0 6 )专题资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用 NCEP 1960 ～ 1997 年月平均 500 hPa 高度、1000 hPa 的风场和温度、JM A 海表温度资料及 NCA R O LR 资料进行合成分析, 给出了影响华东地区热带气旋(T C)偏多年与偏少年的前秋冬季不同的大气环流、O LR 和海表温度场特征, 从中可看到冬季风活动对 T C 年频数异常有影响。 在此基础上建立了华东地区热带气旋年频数异常的概念模型, 并且进行了试用, 其结果表明该概念模型对华东地区热带气旋年频数的短期气候预测有参考价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 热带气旋 频数异常 概念模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2000-03-08 |
| 修稿时间： | 2000年3月8日 |
Analysis of Anomalous Frequency of Tropical Cyclone in East China |
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| Jiang Leyi,Ying Ming.Analysis of Anomalous Frequency of Tropical Cyclone in East China[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2002,13(1):88-95. |
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| Authors: | Jiang Leyi Ying Ming |
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| Affiliation: | Shanghai Typhoon I nstitute, S hanghai 200030 |
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| Abstract: | Based on 1958-1997 monthly mean data of 500 hPa height and 1000 hPa wind, temperature, sea surface temperature and outgoing long-wave radiation, the features in the former autumn-winter season for anomalous frequency of tropical cyclone affecting East China are discussed with the composition analysis method. It is shown that these different features relate to the anomalous winter monsoon. Therefore, winter monsoon has influence on the frequency of tropical cyclones affecting East China. Finally, a diagnostic conceptual model is constructed. The prediction experiments are conducted and the results show that the conceptual model has reference value to forecasting the anomalous frequency of tropical cyclones. |
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| Keywords: | Tropical cyclone year Frequency anomaly Conceptual model |
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