| 广东省前汛期降水分布趋势的分析与预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 谢炯光.广东省前汛期降水分布趋势的分析与预测[J].应用气象学报,1997,8(4):452-459. |
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| 作者姓名： | 谢炯光 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.广州中心气象台 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用模糊聚类分析方法将广东省前汛期降水的分布趋势进行分类。取各类的代表站进行对应分析，用前两个公共因子对汛期降水的分布趋势进行分类，分析各类的500 hPa平均高度场及它们之间的差异。同时研究各类前冬（1，2月）500 hPa环流形势的演变特点和海温场（12～2月）的分布。最后求得前两个载荷变量的预测值，作出汛期降水分布趋势预报。
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| 关 键 词： | 汛期降水 模糊聚类分析 降水趋势预报 |
Analysis and Forecast of Precipitation Distribution Trend Prior to Flood Season in Guangdong Province |
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| Xie Jiongguang.Analysis and Forecast of Precipitation Distribution Trend Prior to Flood Season in Guangdong Province[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,1997,8(4):452-459. |
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| Authors: | Xie Jiongguang |
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| Affiliation: | 1.(Guangzhou Central Meteorological Observatory, Guangzhou 510080) |
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| Abstract: | Classification of precipitation distribution trends prior to flood-season in Guangdong Province was carried out by using fuzzy cluster analysis technique. Corresponging analysis was also made for the sampled representative stations. The distribution trends of flood-season precipitation were classified by taking the first two common factors to analyse mean height fields at 500 hPa and investigate their differences. Meanwhile, evolution characteristics of 500hPa circulation situation in the previous winter seasons (Jan. ~ Feb.) and SST distribution (Dec. ~ Feb.) were studied. Finally, Precipitation distribution trend in floodseason was predicted by using forecast values of the first two loading variables |
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| Keywords: | Floodseason precipitation Fuzzy cluster analysis Precipitation trend forecast |
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