| WSR-88D冰雹探测算法在贵州地区的评估检验 |
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| 引用本文： | 王瑾,刘黎平.WSR-88D冰雹探测算法在贵州地区的评估检验[J].应用气象学报,2011,22(1):96-106. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王瑾 刘黎平 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.贵州省气象局，贵阳 550002 |
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| 基金项目： | 贵州省优秀青年科技人才培养对象专项基金，贵州省气象局"雷达创新团队"项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过制定一定的规则，使用贵州504个防雹炮点的冰雹观测资料及2005，2006年贵阳雷达站8次冰雹过程观测资料，使用时间窗方法间接地将风暴单体与降雹记录相联系，建立了冰雹算法校验数据库，并对降雹校验数据库的数据进行统计分析，应用探测概率、虚警率、临界成功指数来检验冰雹探测算法。强冰雹概率 (POSH) 的强冰雹探测算法的总体评估结果表明:当POSH算法的强冰雹预警阈值为30%时，在贵州地区获得最高的临界成功指数评分，但这个阈值在每次强冰雹预警时并不是都获得最佳结果。强冰雹预警阈值选择模式 (WTSM，即根据冻结层高度动态选择每天强冰雹指数的预警阈值) 在不同地区气候状况下的差异，是导致缺省的POSH算法在贵州地区应用不佳的最主要原因，这也说明对冰雹探测算法的局地性适用评估非常必要。通过对WTSM的调整，改进了原来的POSH算法。
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| 关 键 词： | 冰雹探测算法 WSR-88D风暴算法的评估 强冰雹概率 强冰雹预警阈值选择模式 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010-03-16 |
The Evaluation of WSR-88D Hail Detection Algorithm over Guizhou Region |
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| Wang Jin and Liu Liping.The Evaluation of WSR-88D Hail Detection Algorithm over Guizhou Region[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2011,22(1):96-106. |
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| Authors: | Wang Jin and Liu Liping |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Guizhou Provincial Meteorological Bureau, Guiyang 5500022.State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | The evaluation databases for the WSR-88D hail detection algorithm have been built by using hail observation data of 504 hail prevention spots in Guizhou and Doppler radar data of Guiyang during 8 of severe hail cases from 2005 to 2006, filtered by specific conditions including definition of severe hail, observation range along the cell track, and time-window methodology, etc. These conditions make the databases provide a more accurate picture of algorithm performance. The algorithms are evaluated using the probability of detection (DPO), false alarm ratio (RFA), and critical success index (ICS) statistics.It shows that POH (probability of hail) threshold of 50% get the highest RFA, and different POH thresholds get similar ICS, suggesting that it is unreliable to use POH as the only parameter for hail detection in Guizhou region. The difference of climatology between Guizhou area and central Switzerland where the initial POH curve is derived is the crucial cause why POH algorithm becomes unreliable and gets higher RFA.Assigning POSH (probability of severe hail) 30% leads to the highest ICS score in Guizhou region, but this threshold does not always get the best performance in these 8 severe hail cases. The difference of WTSM (Warning Threshold Selection Model) in different climatic region is the main cause why the default POSH algorithm gets a bad performance. An improved WTSM will predict the optimum ISH threshold for each day more accurately. It will help ensure that the POSH threshold of 50% always corresponds to the largest possible ICS every day. The re-evaluation of the improved POSH algorithm shows that it has decreased the hail detection RFA, and gets a higher performance of severe hail detection in Guizhou. |
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| Keywords: | hail detection algorithm evaluation of WSR 88D algorithm POSH WTSM |
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