| 大兴安岭气候干湿变化及对森林火灾的影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 李秀芬,郭昭滨,赵慧颖,朱海霞,王萍,翟墨.大兴安岭气候干湿变化及对森林火灾的影响[J].应用气象学报,2018,29(5):619-629. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李秀芬 郭昭滨 赵慧颖 朱海霞 王萍 翟墨 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国气象局东北地区生态气象创新开放实验室, 哈尔滨 150030 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（41165005），中国气象局气候变化专项（CCSF201606，CCSF201410） |
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| 摘 要： | 明确气候变化背景下大兴安岭林区气候干湿状况特征，揭示其对森林火灾的影响，可为该区域森林火灾管理和森林资源保护提供科学依据。基于大兴安岭林区1974—2016年标准化降水指数（SPI），采用统计分析和对比分析方法，系统研究不同干湿情景对森林火灾发生次数及过火面积的影响，并讨论不同等级干旱对其影响的异同性。结果表明:1974—2016年，年、季尺度上大兴安岭林区气候均呈湿润化趋势。森林火灾发生次数多（少）和过火面积大（小）与气候的干湿状况（等级）基本一致，但森林火灾的发生次数与气候干湿状况相关更为密切。年尺度上，SPI与火灾次数呈负相关，与过火面积的自然对数则呈较弱的负相关；季尺度上，各季节SPI与对应的林火次数和过火面积自然对数均呈显著的负相关，但与过火面积的相关程度差异较大，以春季相关最为显著，秋季次之，夏季则相对较弱；不同季节SPI与年林火次数和过火面积自然对数呈负相关，前一年冬季SPI对当年火灾次数的贡献最大。可见，气候干湿状况对森林火灾的影响存在明显的滞后效应。SPI不仅能较好地反映区域气候的干湿状况，亦能较好地指示森林火灾发生的可能性及发生火灾的过火面积的相对变化情况，可为森林火灾预测和管理提供科学依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 大兴安岭 干湿变化 森林火灾 标准化降水指数 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018/3/23 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2018/5/18 0:00:00 |
Change of Dry and Wet Climate and Its Influence on Forest Fire in the Great Xing'an Mountains |
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| Li Xiufen,Guo Zhaobin,Zhao Huiying,Zhu Haixi,Wang Ping and Zhai Mo.Change of Dry and Wet Climate and Its Influence on Forest Fire in the Great Xing'an Mountains[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2018,29(5):619-629. |
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| Authors: | Li Xiufen Guo Zhaobin Zhao Huiying Zhu Haixi Wang Ping and Zhai Mo |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Innovation and Opening Laboratory of Eco-Meteorology in Northeast China, CMA, Harbin 1500302.Meteorological Academician Workstation of Heilongjiang Province, Harbin 1500303.Heilongjiang Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Harbin 1500304.Forestry Department of Heilongjiang Province, Harbin 150090 |
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| Abstract: | It''s of immense importance to understand characteristics of dry and wet climate condition change in forest region of the Great Xing''an Mountains, and reveal its influence on forest fire pattern, which can provide scientific basis for forest fire management and forest resource protection in this region. Based on standardized precipitation index(SPI) in the Great Xing''an Mountains from 1974 to 2016, using statistical analysis and comparative analysis method, effects of different dry and wet scenarios on the number of forest fires and burned areas are systematically analyzed. And similarities and differences of different drought grade effects on forest fires are discussed. From 1974 to 2016, The annual climate of the Great Xing''an Mountains in Heilongjiang shows wetting trends, with several obvious stages. The annual fluctuation of SPI in seasonal scale is larger, and all of them show wetting trends. The precipitation in summer plays a decisive role in the change of annual dry-wet climate conditions. The forest fire frequency and burned areas are basically accordant with the grade of dry and wet climate. However, the number of forest fires is more closely related to the dry and wet climate condition. On annual scale, SPI value is negatively correlated with the number of fires, reaching 0.05 significant level. However, SPI value shows a weak negative correlation with the natural logarithm of the total burned areas, not passing the significant test. On seasonal scale, there is a significant negative correlation of SPI to the number of forest fires and the natural logarithm of burned areas. But the seasonal difference is great, and it''s most significant in spring, followed by autumn, and relatively weak in summer. SPI in different seasons is negatively correlated with the number of annual forest fires and the natural logarithm of burned areas. Dry and wet climate has effects on the forest fires in lag period, and it''s found that SPI in the previous winter contributes most to the number of forest fires. SPI can not only better reflect dry and wet conditions of regional climate, but also indicate the possibility of forest fire and the relative change of burned areas well. It can provide a scientific basis for forest fire prediction and management. |
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| Keywords: | the Great Xing''an Mountains change of dry and wet climate forest fire standardized precipitation index (SPI) |
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