| 日降水量空间插值方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 高歌,龚乐冰,赵珊珊,张强.日降水量空间插值方法研究[J].应用气象学报,2007,18(5):732-736. |
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| 作者姓名： | 高歌 龚乐冰 赵珊珊 张强 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.国家气候中心 中国气象局气候研究开放实验室, 北京 100081 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用反距离权重法和普通克里格方法对26°~34°N, 103°~115°E范围内2004年逐日降水量进行空间插值试验分析, 分辨率为1 km×1 km。采用交叉检验方法和准确率方法对两种方法插值的总体效果及不同等级的降水插值效果进行综合对比。结果表明:两种方法插值效果近似, 插值结果与实测值相关系数分别为0.83和0.82。但对日雨量较大的情况, 两种方法插值效果均有所降低, 相关系数为0.66和0.67。两种方法的实测值与插值结果的相关系数在不同季节非常接近, 并且均以春季最大, 其次为冬、秋季, 夏季相关系数最小; 通过采用平均误差、平均绝对误差和均方根3个指标衡量及不同等级雨量的插值准确率统计比较, 普通克里格方法插值效果略好于反距离权重法。
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| 关 键 词： | 日降水量 插值 反距离权重法 普通克里格方法 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-04-20 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-01-11 |
Spatial Interpolation Methods of Daily Precipitation |
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| Gao Ge,Gong Lebing,Zhao Shanshan,Zhang Qiang.Spatial Interpolation Methods of Daily Precipitation[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2007,18(5):732-736. |
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| Authors: | Gao Ge Gong Lebing Zhao Shanshan Zhang Qiang |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, CMA, Beijing 1000812.Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Sweden |
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| Abstract: | High-resolution precipitation field is very useful in the study of precipitation-induced geological hazards. The quality of the precipitation field varies if different interpolation methods are used. In this study inverse distance weighting and ordinary Kriging methods are applied to interpolate daily precipitation of stations over 26°—34°N, 103°—115°E into 1 km×1 km grid.The interpolation results are then compared to indicate which method better represents the spatial pattern and intensity of precipitation. Results show that the two methods perform similarly well by their correlation coefficients of 0.83 and 0.82 between observed and interpolated precipitation in the cross validation test. When daily precipitation is equal to or greater than 10 mm, both methods are less efficient and the correlation is down to 0.66 and 0.67. The correlation coefficient, as an indicator of the interpolation quality, has a clear seasonal trend with a maximum in spring and a minimum in summer. From analysis to the accuracy of interpolation for heavier precipitation, both methods show unsatisfied results and Inverse distance weighting method with more error rate. The accuracy decrease from 80% for precipitation exceeding 10 mm to 65% for precipitation exceeding 25 mm, particular in rainstorm with above 50 mm precipitation, the accuracy is only 50%. The observed precipitation is systematically underestimated by both methods and the interpolation quality gradually decreases for heavy precipitation. Generally, ordinary Kriging is better than inverse distance weighting. But the running time is a disadvantage when the ordinary Kriging method is applied into operational system, inverse distance weighting method may be substituted for it. |
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| Keywords: | daily rainfall interpolation inverse distance weighting ordinary Kriging |
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