| 短期气候预测评估方法和业务初估 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈桂英,赵振国.短期气候预测评估方法和业务初估[J].应用气象学报,1998,9(2):178-185. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈桂英 赵振国 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.国家气候中心 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家“九五”重中之重项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据短期气候预测业务目前的基本现状，提出了短期气候业务预测效果评估的几种参数。使用这些参数对国家气候中心气候预测室近20多年来全国范围月、季、年几种主要预测业务的降水距平百分率和平均气温距平的预测效果进行了初步评估。结果表明，月尺度预报中，温度预报好于降水预报；年度降水预报以对春季预报为最好；汛期降水预报水平有明显提高。
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| 关 键 词： | 评估 预报评分 技巧评分 距平相关 异常级 |
Assessment Methods of Short Range Climate Prediction and Their Operational Application |
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| Chen Guiying,Zhao Zhenguo.Assessment Methods of Short Range Climate Prediction and Their Operational Application[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,1998,9(2):178-185. |
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| Authors: | Chen Guiying Zhao Zhenguo |
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| Affiliation: | 1.(National Climate Center, Beijing 100081) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the current situation of shortrange climate prediction, some parameters for assessment of forecast effectiveness are proposed. Using these parameters, the forecast results of anomalous percentage of precipitation and anomaly of mean temperature for monthly, seasonal and interannual scales during the last 20 years in NCC are evaluated. It is shown that the forecasts of temperature is better than those of precipitation for monthly scale, the forecasts of precipitation are better in spring than those in winter and summer for interannual scale, and the forecasts of precipitation for rainy season have a remarkable improvement. |
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| Keywords: | Assessment Forecast score Skill score Anomaly correlation Anomalous grade |
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