| 春秋季环流的季节性调整对湖北省夏季洪涝的影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 周月华,向华.春秋季环流的季节性调整对湖北省夏季洪涝的影响[J].应用气象学报,2004,15(3):336-344. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周月华 向华 |
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| 作者单位： | 武汉中心气象台, 武汉 430074 |
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| 基金项目： | 湖北省科委重点课题“湖北省持续性暴雨洪涝成因分析和预报方法”资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 洪涝是湖北省的主要气象灾害，文章在对湖北省汛期降水气候特征分析的基础上，定义出9个湖北持续性暴雨洪涝年，这些洪涝年主要发生在中国东部出现南方类或中间类雨型。通过对湖北省东部地区汛期降水与500 hPa高度场的相关分析，认为春秋季节的环流调整异常，是预测湖北省汛期降水的重要前期因子，典型洪涝年和干旱年前期3月份在55°~65°N的纬圈上，其高度距平合成显示，在130°E~120°W范围内和90°~10°W范围内距平变化相反。通过对上年春季3月、秋季10月及当年3月500 hPa高度场上环流季节性调整的分析，找出对湖北夏季降水异常偏多具有指示意义的指标，建立了湖北省夏季洪涝年的短期气候预测模型。模型首先用两个因子将大涝这种小概率事件（9/49=18%）转变为大概率事件（9/13=70%），然后，分两步进行判断。其模型对湖北大涝年（共9年，1954，1969，1980，1983，1987，1991，1996，1998，1999年）的识别率为100%，2000~2002年预报试验结论正确。
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| 关 键 词： | 湖北省东部 洪涝 环流季节调整 气候预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 2002-11-29 |
| 修稿时间： | 2002年11月29 |
Effect of Seasonal Circumfluence Dressal in Spring and Autumn on Summer Flood in Hubei Province |
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| Zhou Yuehua,Xiang Hua.Effect of Seasonal Circumfluence Dressal in Spring and Autumn on Summer Flood in Hubei Province[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2004,15(3):336-344. |
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| Authors: | Zhou Yuehua Xiang Hua |
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| Affiliation: | Wuhan Central Meteorological Observatory, Wuhan 430074 |
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| Abstract: | Flood is the major meteorological disaster of Hubei Province. Nine lasting torrential rain flood year are defined after analysis on climatic characteristics of precipitation in the flood period in Hubei Province, which occur mainly in years when there is a southern or middle raintype in the eastern China. The correlation between the rainfall in the eastern Hubei in the flood period and 500 hPa circumfluence elevation field is analyzed. It concludes that abnormal redressal of circumfluence in spring and autumn is an important prophase factor in forecasting rainfall in the flood period in Hubei Province. A departure composing demonstrates that, in typical flood year and draught year, the departure from average of the heights at 55°—65°N in preceding March is inverse within 130°E—120°W and 90°—10°W. The 500 hPa circumfluence fields of preceding March of the year and March, October of the year before are studied to find out some key indexes which make senses on the abnormal excessive summer rain in the Province. Then a short-term climatic forecasting model for summer flooding year in the Province is established. The model utilizes two factors to transfer serious flood as a small probability (probability=18%) occurrence into a big probability (probability=70%) occurrence, after that, a judgment is made through two steps, which demonstrates a 100% distinguishing rate for the serious flooding year in history of Hubei Province, and the test forecast for 2000—2002 accorded well with actual conditions. |
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| Keywords: | Flood Seasonal redressal of circumfluence Climate forecast |
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