| 两种参数化方案下冬小麦品种对发育期的影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 王芳,邬定荣,王春乙.两种参数化方案下冬小麦品种对发育期的影响[J].应用气象学报,2017,28(4):493-503. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王芳 邬定荣 王春乙 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象科学研究院, 北京 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象科学研究院基本科研业务费项目（2016Y009），河北省科技计划项目（15227609D） |
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| 摘 要： | 利用华北平原47个农业气象观测站1986—2010年冬小麦的品种、发育期观测资料和同期气象数据，基于常用的发育期模型，对两种参数化方案下品种变化对发育期影响的特征进行研究。其中参数化方案1采用固定的三基点温度，参数化方案2通过循环优化得到三基点温度。结果表明:在华北平原冬小麦品种变化频繁的情况下，两种参数化方案均能较好地对返青-抽穗期与抽穗-成熟期的模拟过程进行参数化；两种参数化方案均认为品种变化使返青-抽穗期和抽穗-成熟期日数有延长趋势，但不同参数化方案的趋势值存在较大差异，且参数化方案1模拟的趋势值总是高于参数化方案2。此外，不同的参数化方案也会使模拟的趋势值在区域上的分布规律发生变化。研究表明:不同参数化方案的使用会对模拟结果产生明显影响，因此，在量化品种变化对发育期影响时，需关注不同参数化方案对结果的影响，以及由此带来的不确定性。
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| 关 键 词： | 品种变化 发育期 参数化方案 不确定性 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017/3/16 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2017/5/15 0:00:00 |
Effects of Cultivar Shifts on Winter Wheat Phenology Under Two Parameterization Methods |
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| Wang Fang,Wu Dingrong and Wang Chunyi.Effects of Cultivar Shifts on Winter Wheat Phenology Under Two Parameterization Methods[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2017,28(4):493-503. |
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| Authors: | Wang Fang Wu Dingrong and Wang Chunyi |
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| Affiliation: | Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | Phenology and growth duration of crops have been significantly changed by the combined effects of climate change and cultivar shifts. For the need of accurately evaluating the response of crops phenology to future climate changes, effects of cultivar shift on phenology and its quantitative simulation has become a research hotspot. However, most recent studies are based on the single parameterization method, with less attention paid to effects of different parameterization methods, leading to a certain degree of assessment uncertainty.Winter wheat phenology data and daily meteorological data in 47 agrometeorological observation stations in North China Plain during 1986-2010 are collected. Based on these datasets, a most commonly used phenology model is used to quantize effects of cultivar shifts on phenology, and effects of two parameterization methods on simulated results are also analyzed. The first method uses fixed three cardinal temperatures (Method 1), while in the second method (Method 2) three cardinal temperatures are obtained by minimizing the root mean square error of simulated phenology.Results show that winter wheat critical phenology in North China Plain changes significantly under the frequently change of cultivar during study period. Both two methods perform well in parameterizing the simulation of durations from turning green to heading and from heading to maturity in the winter wheat simulation. The growth duration is prolonged by cultivar shift in the duration from turning green to heading and the duration from heading to maturity, though values given by Method 1 are higher. Both methods indicate effects of cultivar shifts on the duration from heading to maturity is higher than those on the duration from turning green to heading. In addition, the range of simulated trends and their regional distribution are also affected by the different parameterization method used. Among them, the difference of simulation results between two methods in the duration from turning green to heading is higher than the duration from heading to maturity. In the regional distribution, the difference of simulation results between two methods is bigger in the duration from heading to maturity. It verifies that simulation results are potentially affected by parameterization method. Therefore, the selection of parameterization methods and uncertainties introduced by different methods should be carefully considered. |
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| Keywords: | cultivar shifts phenology parameterization method uncertainty |
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