| 东北春玉米非线性积温模型参数改进 |
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| 引用本文： | 李蕊,郭建平.东北春玉米非线性积温模型参数改进[J].应用气象学报,2018,29(2):154-164. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李蕊 郭建平 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国气象科学研究院, 北京 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（31571559） |
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| 摘 要： | 结合我国东北地区春玉米生长发育的实际情况，以观测年份较多、观测地点较广为原则选取4个春玉米品种，分别为东农248、龙单13、四单19和丹玉13，利用生长发育观测资料和同期气象观测资料，判断4个玉米品种的相对熟型并对沈国权非线性积温模型（简称NLM）进行参数拟合，讨论参数的生物学意义及其与品种熟型的关系，对NLM进行有效改进及验证。结果表明:4个春玉米品种NLM均不存在无效参数，参数K与参数Q存在显著的相关性，说明K可能仅是一个统计参数，没有明确的生物学意义；积温在品种间存在显著差异，全生育期模型参数Q与多年站次平均有效积温或活动积温有较好的相关性，由于不同的积温意味着不同的玉米品种熟型，说明Q与玉米品种的熟型有关，将模型参数Q和K用反映玉米品种熟型的参数（有效积温、活动积温）表示，建立了适用于不同品种的通用积温模型，取得较好的应用效果。
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| 关 键 词： | 东北春玉米 非线性积温模型 参数改进 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017/10/25 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2018/1/9 0:00:00 |
Improving Parameters of Nonlinear Accumulated Temperature Model for Spring Maize in Northeast China |
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| Li Rui and Guo Jianping.Improving Parameters of Nonlinear Accumulated Temperature Model for Spring Maize in Northeast China[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2018,29(2):154-164. |
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| Authors: | Li Rui and Guo Jianping |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 1000812.Collaborative Innovation Center of Meteorological Disaster Forecast, Early-Warning and Assessment, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044 |
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| Abstract: | Heat condition is one of the most crucial factors that affect the growth and development of crops, which is also of great importance for Northeast China located in the middle and high latitudes. Accumulated temperature is the main factor affecting yield formation, and similarly, temperature plays a key role in determining the duration of growing seasons, yield and so on. Effects of temperature on growth and development of crops are investigated extensively and various kinds of accumulated temperature indexes are established. However, these accumulated temperature models are not always stable. Therefore, it is important to improve the indexes or models, making them convenient to calculate with great stability and applicable to different regions, environments and varieties. A relatively stable accumulated temperature model (NLM) proposed by Shen Guoquan is studied which is applicable to spring maize in northeast China. There are numerous maize varieties and significant differences in parameters determined by different varieties when applying NLM. Therefore, it is important to establish a general accumulated temperature model considering varietal attribute to improve the applicability. Four varieties with more observable years and stations are selected, which are Dongnong 248, Longdan 13, Sidan 19 and Danyu 13. The NLM is adopted based on observations of the growth and development of spring maize and meteorological data in-situ in Northeast China. Biological significance of parameters and the relationship between parameters and varieties or mature period are analyzed, and thus NLM is improved effectively and verified.Results show that, there are no invalid parameters in fitting equations of four maize varieties. The parameter P is determined as 0.5 based on the smallest variation coefficient of accumulated temperature. There is a significant correlation between parameter K and parameter Q, indicating that the parameter K may be only a statistical parameter with no clear biological significance. There is a significant difference of accumulated temperature among varieties. The relationship between the parameter Q and the mean value of effective accumulated temperature or active accumulated temperature during the whole growth period is found to be of good correlation, which indicates that Q is related to the mature period types of different maize varieties. Therefore, a general model applicable to different varieties is proposed whose parameters Q and K are represented by effective accumulated temperature or active accumulated temperature. The application capacity of the model has been significantly improved. |
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| Keywords: | spring maize in Northeast China nonlinear accumulated temperature model improvement of parameters |
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