| 基于CWRF的中国近海热带气旋集合模拟及其对物理参数化方案的敏感性研究 |
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| 作者单位： | Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC) /Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China;Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 4001, College Park, MD, USA |
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| 基金项目： | This study was supported by the National Climate Center of China under Grants 2211011816501 |
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| 摘 要： | 为评估CWRF模式的降尺度能力和其热带气旋模拟对物理参数化方案的敏感性,本文利用ERI再分析资料驱动CWRF在30km网格上对1982-2016年中国近海热带气旋开展了一次集合模拟.结果表明:CWRF与ERI均能模拟出热带气旋的季节变化和年际变化形势且均存在低估,但相较ERI,CWRF的降尺度技术和集合模拟可以再现更多的热带气旋,显著减少低估.年际变化结果提升最为明显,它对积云方案最为敏感,其次是边界层,陆面和辐射方案,对云和微物理方案较弱.该研究为应用CWRF理解和预报热带气旋提供了参考.
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| 关 键 词： | 热带气旋 集合模拟 物理参数化方案 区域降尺度 |
CWRF-based ensemble simulation of tropical cyclone activity near China and its sensitivity to the model physical parameterization schemes |
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| Authors: | Wenru Shi Haishan Chen Xin-Zhong Liang |
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| Abstract: | To evaluate the downscaling ability with respect to tropical cyclones (TCs) near China and its sensitivity to the model physics representation,the authors performed a multi-physics ensemble simulation with the regional Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting (CWRF) model at a 30 km resolution driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis data.The ensemble consisted of 28 integrations during 1979-2016 with varying CWRF physics configurations.Both CWRF and ERA-Interim can generally capture the seasonal cycle and interannual variation of the TC number near China,but evidently underestimate them.The CWRF downscaling and its multi-physics ensemble can notably reduce the underestimation and significantly improve the simulation of the TC occurrences.The skill enhancement is especially large in terms of the interannual variation,which is most sensitive to the cumulus scheme,followed by the boundary layer,surface and radiation schemes,but weakly sensitive to the cloud and microphysics schemes.Generally,the Noah surface scheme,CAML(CAM radiation scheme as implemented by Liang together with the diagnostic cloud cover scheme of Xu and Randall(1996)) radiation scheme,prognostic cloud scheme,and Thompson microphysics scheme stand out for their better performance in simulating the interarmual variation of TC number.However,the Emanuel cumtulus and MYNN boundary layer schemes produce severe interannual biases.Our study provides a valuable reference for CWRF application to improve the understanding and prediction of TC activity. |
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| Keywords: | Tropical cyclone Ensemble simulation Physical parameterization schemes Regional downscaling |
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