Intraseasonal oscillation intensity over the western North Pacific:Projected changes under global warming |
| |
| Authors: | Yi Fan Ke Fan Zhiqing Xu |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, China;2. School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China;3. Southern Laboratory of Ocean Science and Engineering (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, China;4. Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China |
| |
| Abstract: | The 30-60-day intraseasonal oscillation(ISO)and 10-20-day ISO are two dominant oscillation modes over the western North Pacific during boreal summer.With daily data derived from eight CMIP5 models,changes of the ISO intensities are projected under the 1.5 and 2.0℃global warming levels under the Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.Most of the models agree that the ISO intensities increase along a belt region from the south Indochina Peninsula(ICP)to the east to the Philippines.The variation pattern shows little difference between different warming levels or scenarios.Results indicate that the spatial distribution of ISO anomalies is related with the variation of background fields.Enriched lower-level humidity and moist static energy favor the intensity increases of ISOs,which are projected to be larger over the whole western North Pacific,with the most conspicuous changes located over the east to the Philippines for humidity but over the south of the ICP for moist static energy.In contrast,the ISOs over the west to Indonesia and northeast to the Philippines decrease,which is consistent with the local descending motions. |
| |
| Keywords: | Intraseasonal oscillation intensity Representative concentration pathway 1 5 and 2 0℃global warming Western North Pacific |
| 本文献已被 万方数据 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录！ |
|
