| 石家庄高温、热浪和闷热天气对心脑血管疾病死亡人数的影响 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 付桂琴,陆倩,张亚男.石家庄高温、热浪和闷热天气对心脑血管疾病死亡人数的影响[J].气象学报,2022,80(3):403-409. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 付桂琴 陆倩 张亚男 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1.河北省气象服务中心，石家庄，050021 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划项目（2016YFA0602004）、国家自然科学基金项目（4217584）、河北省健康气象研发项目（FW202150） |
| |
| 摘 要： | 评价高温、热浪、闷热不同热感天气暴露对心脑血管疾病死亡人数的影响。采用广义相加模型（GAM）、平滑曲线阈值效应方法，在控制了时间序列长期趋势、季节效应、节假日效应的混杂影响后，分析了2010—2016年的6—8月石家庄高温、热浪、闷热不同热感天气暴露对心脑血管疾病死亡人数的影响，并分析了男女性别的分人群效应。研究期间收集到心脑血管疾病死亡总计6552人，日均死亡10.2人，日死亡最多为40.0人。对应期间出现高温日98 d，热浪日58 d，闷热日79 d。相对于非高温、热浪、闷热日，高温、热浪、闷热天气对心脑血管疾病死亡人数影响的相对危险度分别为1.086（95%置信区间（95%CI）:1.013—1.164）、1.252（95%CI:1.101—1.442）、1.100（95%CI:1.020—1.185），其最大滞后效应分别为3 d、1 d、0 d，对应死亡人数增加的风险分别为12.2%、31.8%、10.0%，且对女性的影响风险均大于男性。高温、热浪、闷热天气均可导致心脑血管疾病死亡风险的增加，归因滞后1 d热浪死亡的风险最大，归因闷热天气死亡的风险未发现滞后效应，建议依据不同热感天气有针对性地建立健康风险管理和应对机制。
|
| 关 键 词： | 高温热浪闷热天气 心脑血管疾病 死亡人数 影响分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-12-02 |
| 修稿时间： | 2022-03-22 |
Analysis of the influence of high temperature,heatwave and sweltering weather on the death number of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Shijiazhuang |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1.Hebei Meteorological Service Center，Shijiazhuang 050021，China2.Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Ecological Environment of Hebei Province，Shijiazhuang 050021，China3.Chengde Meteorological Service of Hebei Province，Chengde 067000，China |
| |
| Abstract: | To evaluate the effects of exposure to high temperature, heatwave and sultry weather on the number of cardiovascular disease deaths. Using the generalized additive model (GAM) and smoothed curve threshold effect method, the relationship between different heat-sensitive weather exposures on the number of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular deaths in Shijiazhuang from June to August, 2009 to 2016 was analyzed. After controlling for the confounding effects of long-term trends in time series, seasonal effects and holiday effects, the impact of sub-population of male and female was analyzed. A total of 6552 cardiovascular and cerebrovascular deaths were collected during the study period, with an average of 10.2 deaths per day and a maximum of 40.0 deaths per day. During the corresponding period, there were 98 d of high temperature, 58 d of heatwave and 79 d of muggy day. The relative risk of the effect of hot, heatwave and sultry weather on the number of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular deaths relative to the non-hot, heatwave and sultry days was 1.086 (95%CI: 1.013—1.164), 1.252 (95%CI: 1.101—1.442) and 1.100 (95%CI: 1.020—1.185) with maximum lagged effects of 3 d, 1 d and 0 d, corresponding to an increased risk of death of 12.2%, 31.8% and 10.0%, respectively, and all with a greater risk of effect for women than men. High temperature, heatwave, and sultry weather can all lead to an increased risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular death, with the most significant risk of death attributable to heatwaves. No lag effect was found for the risk of death attributable to sultry weather. It was recommended that health risk management and coping mechanisms be tailored to different heat-sensitive weather. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
|
| 点击此处可从《气象学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《气象学报》下载全文 |
|
