| 带随机初值和随机强迫的简单模式的集合预报试验 |
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| 引用本文： | 胡增臻,中久恩,张建中.带随机初值和随机强迫的简单模式的集合预报试验[J].气象学报,1991,49(4):518-526. |
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| 作者姓名： | 胡增臻 中久恩 张建中 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京气象学院，中科院计算中心，中科院计算中心 北京中关村中国科学院大气物理研究所 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文用简单的准地转正压涡度方程谱模式作为本文模式的动力框架,考虑到作为模式初始场的气象资料中存在着大量的随机误差,以及模式中物理过程的不完善(例如,没有考虑大气与下垫面的相互作用、辐射等),采用在模式中加入随机强迫项和使用随机初值的蒙特卡洛方法,建立了一个统计动力相结合的模式,并用此模式做了1983年1月500hPa月平均高度场的数值预报试验。试验结果表明:同时考虑随机强迫和随机初值的模式预报效果优于纯动力模式、随机初值模式和随机强迫模式的预报效果。
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| 收稿时间： | 1989/6/30 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 1989/12/19 0:00:00 |
THE ENSEMBLE FORECAST EXPERIMENT OF A SIMPLE MODEL WHICH INCLUDES RANDOM INITIAL VALUE AND RANDOM FORCING |
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| Hu Zengzhen,Shi Jiuen and Zhang Jianzhong.THE ENSEMBLE FORECAST EXPERIMENT OF A SIMPLE MODEL WHICH INCLUDES RANDOM INITIAL VALUE AND RANDOM FORCING[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1991,49(4):518-526. |
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| Authors: | Hu Zengzhen Shi Jiuen and Zhang Jianzhong |
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| Affiliation: | Beijing Meteorological Institute, Beijing;Computing Centre of the Chinese Academic Sinica, Beijing;Computing Centre of the Chinese Academic Sinica, Beijing |
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| Abstract: | A simple quasi-geostrophic barotropic vorticity equation model is used as the dynamic frame of the model in this paper. Considering that there are many random errors in model's initial values of meteorological data, and that it is not perfectly complete about model's physical processes (for example, take no account of the interaction between atmosphere and underlying surface, radiation, etc.),the random forced term is added to the model, and the Monte-Carlo method with random initial values is used. A statistical-dynamic integrated model is thus built up, and a numerical forecasting experiment of 500 hPa monthly mean height field of January 1983 has been carried out. The experiment result proves that the forecasting result of the model, considering random
forcing and random initial values at the same time,is better than that by the pure dynamic model, the random initial value model and the random forced model. |
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