| 气候变暖对黄淮海地区小麦产量可能影响的模拟试验 |
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| 引用本文： | 王石立,王馥棠.气候变暖对黄淮海地区小麦产量可能影响的模拟试验[J].气象学报,1993,51(2):209-216. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王石立 王馥棠 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象科学研究院，中国气象科学研究院 北京 100081，北京 100081 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文分析了黄淮海地区小麦生育期内不同时段的温度、降水与产量的关系,分别得到了不同类型的偏回归系数曲线。在此基础上,进行了不同季节温度升高对小麦产量的影响及温度、降水同时变化综合影响的模拟试验。结果表明,各地不同季节气候变暖对小麦产量的影响不同:北部、中部地区秋季、冬季变暖将导致增产,春季减产;而南部地区则秋季、春季将减产,冬季增产(河南南部略有不同)。降水量变化对各地各季气候变暖产量效应的迭加作用不同:北部、中部地区秋、冬季降水有利于增产,春季降水对减产略起缓解作用;南方各季降水过多均对小麦不利。总的说来,大部分地区若小麦生育期内气候变暖变湿,将有利于增产,但南部地区降水过多有不容忽视的负作用。
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| 关 键 词： | 温室效应 气候变化 模拟试验 |
| 收稿时间： | 1990/10/10 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 1991/4/28 0:00:00 |
A PRELIMINARY MODELLING OF EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WINTER WHEAT YXELD ON THE PLAIN OF YELLOW-HUAI-HAI RIVER BASINS |
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| Wang Shili and Wang Futang.A PRELIMINARY MODELLING OF EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WINTER WHEAT YXELD ON THE PLAIN OF YELLOW-HUAI-HAI RIVER BASINS[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1993,51(2):209-216. |
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| Authors: | Wang Shili and Wang Futang |
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| Affiliation: | Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081;Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | The relationship between winter wheat yield and temperature and precipitation in various decades during the growing season is analysed respectively, and different kinds of curves of temperature and precipitation partial regression coefficient aj(t) are given. On the basis of this the effects of temperature increase and comprehensive effects of temperature and precipitation in various seasons on the yield are modelled The results show that the effects are different in various parts and different seasons: in northern and central parts of the plain the higher temperature in autumn and winter will be in favour of yield increase and in spring will result in a reduction of yield; in contrast, in southern parts the increase of temprature in autumn and spring will result in yield reduction but warmer winter will be favourable to yield increase. The enhanced precipitation has different overlaping influence on the yield effects of warmer climate: in the northern and central parts of plain the enhanced precipitation in autumn and winter is favourable to yield increase and in spring has moderation effects on yield reduction; but in southern parts too much precipitation in each season will cause reduction of yield.In general, in most area the higher temperature and enhanced precipitation during the whole growing season of wheat will be in favour of yield increase, but in southern parts more precipitation will give negative influence. |
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| Keywords: | Greenhouse effect Climate change Modelling experiment |
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