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基于CMIP5模拟预估21世纪珠江三角洲地区由于海平面上升而导致的淹没区面积
引用本文:夏江江,严中伟,周文,FONG Soi Kun,LEONG Ka Cheng,TANG Iu Man,CHANG S W,LEONG W K,靳少非.基于CMIP5模拟预估21世纪珠江三角洲地区由于海平面上升而导致的淹没区面积[J].海洋学报(英文版),2015,34(9):78-84.
作者姓名:夏江江  严中伟  周文  FONG Soi Kun  LEONG Ka Cheng  TANG Iu Man  CHANG S W  LEONG W K  靳少非
作者单位:中国科学院东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室,中国科学院东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室,香港城市大学能源与环境学院,澳门市地球物理暨气象局,澳门市地球物理暨气象局,澳门市地球物理暨气象局,澳门市地球物理暨气象局,澳门市地球物理暨气象局,中国科学院东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室
摘    要:Projections of potential submerged area due to sea level rise are helpful for improving understanding of the influence of ongoing global warming on coastal areas. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method is used to adaptively decompose the sea level time series in order to extract the secular trend component. Then the linear relationship between the global mean sea level(GMSL) change and the Zhujiang(Pearl) River Delta(PRD)sea level change is calculated: an increase of 1.0 m in the GMSL corresponds to a 1.3 m(uncertainty interval from1.25 to 1.46 m) increase in the PRD. Based on this relationship and the GMSL rise projected by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios(representative concentration pathways, or RCPs, from low to high emission scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5), the PRD sea level is calculated and projected for the period 2006–2100. By around the year 2050, the PRD sea level will rise 0.29(0.21 to 0.40) m under RCP2.6, 0.31(0.22 to 0.42) m under RCP4.5, and 0.34(0.25 to 0.46) m under RCP8.5, respectively.By 2100, it will rise 0.59(0.36 to 0.88) m, 0.71(0.47 to 1.02) m, and 1.0(0.68 to 1.41) m, respectively. In addition,considering the extreme value of relative sea level due to land subsidence(i.e., 0.20 m) and that obtained from intermonthly variability(i.e., 0.33 m), the PRD sea level will rise 1.94 m by the year 2100 under the RCP8.5scenario with the upper uncertainty level(i.e., 1.41 m). Accordingly, the potential submerged area is 8.57×103 km2 for the PRD, about 1.3 times its present area.

关 键 词:海平面  珠江三角洲  代表性浓度路径  CMIP5  集合经验模分解方法
收稿时间:2014/9/26 0:00:00
修稿时间:2015/3/23 0:00:00

Projection of the Zhujiang (Pearl) River Delta's potential submerged area due to sea level rise during the 21st century based on CMIP5 simulations
XIA Jiangjiang,YAN Zhongwei,ZHOU Wen,FONG Soi Kun,LEONG Ka Cheng,TANG Iu Man,CHANG S W,LEONG W K and JIN Shaofei.Projection of the Zhujiang (Pearl) River Delta''s potential submerged area due to sea level rise during the 21st century based on CMIP5 simulations[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2015,34(9):78-84.
Authors:XIA Jiangjiang  YAN Zhongwei  ZHOU Wen  FONG Soi Kun  LEONG Ka Cheng  TANG Iu Man  CHANG S W  LEONG W K and JIN Shaofei
Affiliation:1.Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China2.Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China3.Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau, Macao, China
Abstract:Projections of potential submerged area due to sea level rise are helpful for improving understanding of the influence of ongoing global warming on coastal areas. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method is used to adaptively decompose the sea level time series in order to extract the secular trend component. Then the linear relationship between the global mean sea level (GMSL) change and the Zhujiang (Pearl) River Delta (PRD) sea level change is calculated: an increase of 1.0 m in the GMSL corresponds to a 1.3 m (uncertainty interval from 1.25 to 1.46 m) increase in the PRD. Based on this relationship and the GMSL rise projected by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways, or RCPs, from low to high emission scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5), the PRD sea level is calculated and projected for the period 2006-2100. By around the year 2050, the PRD sea level will rise 0.29 (0.21 to 0.40) m under RCP2.6, 0.31 (0.22 to 0.42) m under RCP4.5, and 0.34 (0.25 to 0.46) m under RCP8.5, respectively. By 2100, it will rise 0.59 (0.36 to 0.88) m, 0.71 (0.47 to 1.02) m, and 1.0 (0.68 to 1.41) m, respectively. In addition, considering the extreme value of relative sea level due to land subsidence (i.e., 0.20 m) and that obtained from intermonthly variability (i.e., 0.33 m), the PRD sea level will rise 1.94 m by the year 2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario with the upper uncertainty level (i.e., 1.41 m). Accordingly, the potential submerged area is 8.57×103 km2 for the PRD, about 1.3 times its present area.
Keywords:sea level  Zhujiang (Pearl) River Delta (PRD)  representative concentration pathways (RCPs)  CMIP5  submerged area  Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD)
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