| 基于空间自相关模型的西北太平洋日本鲭渔场时空变动研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵国庆,吴祖立,崔雪森,樊伟,石永闯,肖戈,唐峰华.基于空间自相关模型的西北太平洋日本鲭渔场时空变动研究[J].海洋学报,2022,44(1):22-35. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵国庆 吴祖立 崔雪森 樊伟 石永闯 肖戈 唐峰华 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.上海海洋大学 海洋科学学院，上海 201306 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划(2019YFD0901405);上海市自然科学基金(17ZR1439700);中国水产科学研究院东海水产研究所基本科研业务费(2021T04);农业农村部远洋与极地渔业创新重点实验室开放课题(2019HY-XKQ03)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 日本鲭（Scomber japonicus）是西北太平洋渔业捕捞的主要种类，了解其渔场变动对探究日本鲭种群分布、资源评估、开发利用和管理等意义重大。为获知其渔场的时空变动特征，本研究根据中国2014?2019年西北太平洋公海灯光围网渔业统计资料，运用全局莫兰指数、局部热点分析、重心迁移轨迹模型和标准差椭圆模型对西北太平洋日本鲭渔场时空分布模式、特征和变动趋势进行了研究。结果显示:（1）日本鲭渔获量主要集中在39°～44°N，147°～155°E范围内，地理上分布不均；年间产量先增后降，年间CPUE逐年降低；月间产量先增后降，其中6?10月均维持在较高水平，CPUE逐月增加；捕捞网次核密度显示，核密度高值发生区域与产量高值具有高度一致性；（2）日本鲭年间、月间渔获量均存在空间自相关并呈现显著聚集分布模式，月间空间自相关性比年间强；（3）年间、月间日本鲭渔获量分布的热点区和冷点区均表现出一定空间集聚特征，但是不同年份、月份的热点区和冷点区的分布区域、面积均存在较大差异；（4）日本鲭渔场重心年间移动轨迹呈右转约90°的扁“W”形状，总体上往西北移动；月间变化显示，从4月份开始逐渐向东北移动，8月到达东北端后向西南折返；（5）日本鲭渔场年间、月间变动方向一致，呈西南?东北格局，且方向性、向心力均较强，日本鲭渔场具有较高的聚集性。该研究引进了空间自相关模型及相关地理空间分析方法，为探讨西北太平洋日本鲭渔场变动特征提供了一种新思路。
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| 关 键 词： | 日本鲭 渔场变动 全局莫兰指数 热点分析 标准差椭圆 西北太平洋 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-06-25 |
Spatial temporal patterns of chub mackerel fishing ground in the Northwest Pacific based on spatial autocorrelation model |
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| Zhao Guoqing,Wu Zuli,Cui Xuesen,Fan Wei,Shi Yongchuang,Xiao Ge,Tang Fenghua.Spatial temporal patterns of chub mackerel fishing ground in the Northwest Pacific based on spatial autocorrelation model[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica (in Chinese),2022,44(1):22-35. |
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| Authors: | Zhao Guoqing Wu Zuli Cui Xuesen Fan Wei Shi Yongchuang Xiao Ge Tang Fenghua |
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| Affiliation: | 1.College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China2.East China Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Shanghai 200090, China |
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| Abstract: | Chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) is a major target species in the Northwest Pacific fishery. Understanding changes in its fishing grounds is of great significance for assessing population size, resource, utilization, and management of the fishery. Based on catch data of high sea light purse seine fishery of China from 2014 to 2019, the spatial and temporal patterns of chub mackerel fishing grounds in the Northwest Pacific using the global Moran index, the local hot spot analysis, center of gravity migration trajectory model, and standard deviation ellipse are analyzed in this study. The results show that: (1) catches of chub mackerel mainly concentrates in the area between 39°?44°N and 147°?155°E, the annual catches show a trend of first increase and then decrease, the annual CPUE decrease year by year, the monthly catches show a trend of first increase and then decrease, which maintaines at a high level from June to October, and the monthly CPUE increases with month. (2) The spatial autocorrelations of annually and monthly chub mackerel catches are significant, and the monthly autocorrelations are stronger than annually ones, indicated highly aggregated distribution of the fishing grounds. (3) The distributions of chub mackerel hot spots and cold spots show a certain spatial agglomeration, but their distribution patterns and the areas cover varied apparently with years and months. (4) The gravity center of fishing ground generally show northwest shift from year to year, and in term of seasonal changes, moves northwest from April to August, and then turnes back to the southwest. (5) The annual and monthly shifts in directions of fishing grounds are consistent, showing an southwest-northeast pattern with strong directivity and aggregation. The spatial correlation models used in this analysis present a new look at spatial and temporal patterns of the chub mackerel fishing grounds, which may provide useful information for the rational development and utilization of the chub mackerel resource. |
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| Keywords: | Scomber japonicus fishing ground variation global Moran index hot spot analysis standard deviation ellipse Northwest Pacific |
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