| 遗传算法与神经网络相结合的热带气旋强度预报方法试验 |
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| 引用本文： | 姚才,金龙,黄明策,黄小燕.遗传算法与神经网络相结合的热带气旋强度预报方法试验[J].海洋学报,2007,29(4):11-19. |
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| 作者姓名： | 姚才 金龙 黄明策 黄小燕 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.广西气象减灾研究所, 广西, 南宁, 530022 |
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| 基金项目： | 广西科学研究与技术开发计划项目(桂攻关0322022-4)，国家科技部社会公益性研究专项(2004DIB3J122) |
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| 摘 要： | 以1960~2001年共41 a的7月和8月西行进入南海海域的热带气旋样本为基础,采用遗传算法与神经网络相结合的方法,进行了热带气旋强度预报模型的预报建模研究.并根据相同的热带气旋个例,将这种遗传-神经网络热带气旋强度预报模型与气候持续法热带气旋强度预报方法进行对比分析,试验预报结果表明,遗传-神经网络方法具有更好的预报能力.
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| 关 键 词： | 遗传算法 神经网络 热带气旋 强度预报 |
| 文章编号： | 0253-4193（2007）04-0011-09 |
| 收稿时间： | 5/7/2006 12:00:00 AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-05-07 |
An experiment with methods of forecasting tropical cyclones intensity base on combination of the genetic algorithm and artificial neural network |
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| YAO Cai,JIN Long,HUANG Ming-ce and HUANG Xiao-yan.An experiment with methods of forecasting tropical cyclones intensity base on combination of the genetic algorithm and artificial neural network[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica (in Chinese),2007,29(4):11-19. |
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| Authors: | YAO Cai JIN Long HUANG Ming-ce and HUANG Xiao-yan |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Guangxi Institute of Meteorological Disaster Reduction, Nanning 530022, China2.Guangxi Meteorological Observatory, Nanning, 530022, China3.Nanning Meteorological Burau in Guangxi, Nanning 530022, China |
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| Abstract: | An experiment of establishing a forecasting model of tropical cyclones(TCs)intensity was undertaken by using genetic algorithm and artificial neural network in combination,base on the data of TCs over the South China Sea area in July and August respectively for the period of 1960~2001.Furthermore,by making a comparative analysis of the forecasting result between the genetic algorithm combining with artificial neural network and the Climatology and Persistence(CLIPER)methods base on the same TCs sample.It showed that the former method had better capacity of TCs intensity forecasting than the latter. |
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| Keywords: | genetic algorithm artificial neural network tropical cyclones(TCs) intensity forecasting |
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