| 陆架海岸台风沉积记录及信息提取 |
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| 引用本文： | 高抒,贾建军,杨阳,周亮,魏稳,梅衍俊,李亚南,王黎,赵培培,刘桢峤,张丽芬.陆架海岸台风沉积记录及信息提取[J].海洋学报,2019,41(10):141-160. |
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| 作者姓名： | 高抒 贾建军 杨阳 周亮 魏稳 梅衍俊 李亚南 王黎 赵培培 刘桢峤 张丽芬 |
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| 作者单位： | 华东师范大学 海洋科学学院 河口海岸学国家重点实验室,上海,200241;华东师范大学 海洋科学学院 河口海岸学国家重点实验室,上海,200241;华东师范大学 海洋科学学院 河口海岸学国家重点实验室,上海,200241;华东师范大学 海洋科学学院 河口海岸学国家重点实验室,上海,200241;华东师范大学 海洋科学学院 河口海岸学国家重点实验室,上海,200241;华东师范大学 海洋科学学院 河口海岸学国家重点实验室,上海,200241;华东师范大学 海洋科学学院 河口海岸学国家重点实验室,上海,200241;华东师范大学 海洋科学学院 河口海岸学国家重点实验室,上海,200241;华东师范大学 海洋科学学院 河口海岸学国家重点实验室,上海,200241;华东师范大学 海洋科学学院 河口海岸学国家重点实验室,上海,200241;华东师范大学 海洋科学学院 河口海岸学国家重点实验室,上海,200241 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金重点项目—海岸风暴频率-强度关系的沉积记录分析（41530962）。 |
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| 摘 要： | 长时间尺度风暴强度–频率关系与气候变化相关联，而器测记录和历史记载难以提供充分的信息，因此从沉积记录中提取风暴信息成为一个前沿科学问题。在应用上，这项研究可为海岸带城市群应对未来气候和海面变化提供决策依据。本文回顾了台风沉积记录研究进展，显示陆架泥质沉积、海滩及海岸沙丘、潮滩、潟湖、巨砾是台风事件记录的良好载体，可通过层序形态和物质特性分析而识别。同时，还需进一步完善分析方法，以区分台风、冬季风暴、河流洪水和海啸等不同类型的极端事件沉积。在台风强度信息提取方面，陆架泥质沉积所含贝壳–粗颗粒沉积物可作为海底再悬浮强度的指标，但需更多实测数据的率定；海滩及海岸沙丘顶部的台风沉积分布高程指示了台风激浪流的上冲高度，而台风巨砾的重量可以与近岸波浪的波高建立联系。以上数据经过换算后可以得出台风强度的信息，虽然这些间接的沉积学信息还不足以建立风暴强度–频率关系，但有助于台风强度大数据的建立。潮滩、潟湖沉积连续性好，可构成台风事件的时间序列，然而关于台风强度却是多解的，台风最大风力、持续时间、移动路径、登陆地点的不同组合可能产生同样的事件沉积。我们建议，应发展台风信息提取的新方法，来解决这个问题。进行现代过程模拟，根据已知的台风事件资料构建沉积物输运堆积模型，使之能够复演事件沉积的特征；进行多个地点事件沉积的反演模拟，在此情形下，即便每个站位的结果是多解的，但针对多个站位上求取其解的交集之后，多解性将下降，这种模拟方法可称之为“解空间收缩法”；采用大数据融合方式，将其他来源的台风强度数据纳入模拟体系，可进一步降低风暴信息提取的不确定性。动力过程模拟与大数据融合方法的建立，有助于获得与沉积记录同样时间尺度的台风强度–频率关系曲线，进而分析台风动态与气候变化的关系。
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| 关 键 词： | 台风过程 事件沉积记录 频率—强度关系 沉积动力过程模拟 解空间收缩法 陆架海岸 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019/7/2 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019/7/30 0:00:00 |
Obtaining typhoon information from sedimentary records in coastal-shelf waters |
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| Affiliation: | State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, School of Marine Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China |
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| Abstract: | The typhoon intensity-frequency relationship over a long period of time is related to climate change, but it is difficult to provide sufficient information from instrumental and historical records. Therefore, to extract storm information from sedimentary records has become a critical scientific problem; the solution to the problem can provide a decision-making basis for coastal cities to cope with future climate and sea level changes. The present study on the progress in the research of typhoon sedimentary records shows that shelf mud deposits, beaches and coastal dunes, tidal flats, lagoons and storm boulders contain records of extreme events. These event layers can be identified by stratigraphic sequence features and sediment characteristics. Typhoon records along the coastline of China have been found in large quantities, but further improvements to the information-obtaining methodology are needed to distinguish between deposits of typhoons, winter outbreaks, river floods and tsunami events. Thus, in terms of the information on typhoon intensity in shelf muds, coarse-grained and shell particles in the deposits can be used as indicators of intensity of bottom resuspension, but calibration with sufficient measurements is required. The elevation of typhoon deposit on the top of beaches and coastal dunes may indicate the height of swash during a typhoon event, while the size of storm boulders has a significant correlation with the offshore wave height. These data can be used to deduce typhoon intensity, although they are not enough to establish the intensity-frequency relationship. Tidal flat and lagoon deposits have a high continuity and can be used to reconstruct the time series of typhoon events. However, the solution to typhoon intensity is not unique because different combinations of maximum wind speed, path, landing place and duration may produce the same event deposit. We propose that a new method of obtaining typhoon information should be developed to solve this problem. Numerical simulation of modern process, with the help and assimilation of available data and knowledge of typhoon events, would be useful to reproduce the characteristics of event deposits. Then, inverse simulation for event deposits can be carried out for multiple locations, to constrain the solution domain. This method may be referred to as "solution domain constraining method". The uncertainty can be further reduced by means of big data analysis, i.e., incorporating other dataset of typhoon intensity into the simulation system. A combination of dynamic process simulation and big data treatment is helpful to the establishment of the intensity-frequency curve of typhoon with the same time scale as the sedimentary record; on such a basis, the relationship between typhoon variation and climate change can be analyzed. |
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| Keywords: | typhoon processes event deposits intensity-frequency relationship sediment dynamic simulation solution domain constraining method coast and shelf waters |
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