| 海底天然气水合物开发的前景研究——基于经济可行性的视角 |
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| 引用本文： | 邢聪聪,姚海燕,霍素霞,朱超祁,郭雅楠.海底天然气水合物开发的前景研究——基于经济可行性的视角[J].海洋开发与管理,2018,35(11):72-75. |
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| 作者姓名： | 邢聪聪 姚海燕 霍素霞 朱超祁 郭雅楠 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家海洋局北海环境监测中心 海洋溢油鉴别与损害评估技术国家海洋局重点实验室,国家海洋局北海环境监测中心 海洋溢油鉴别与损害评估技术国家海洋局重点实验室,国家海洋局北海环境监测中心 海洋溢油鉴别与损害评估技术国家海洋局重点实验室,中国海洋大学 山东省海洋环境地质工程重点实验室,国家海洋局北海环境监测中心 海洋溢油鉴别与损害评估技术国家海洋局重点实验室 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金重大专项（41427803）. |
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| 摘 要： | 海底天然气水合物的开发利用对于国家能源安全与环境保护具有重要意义。然而,作为一种新型深海能源,海底天然气水合物至今仍未实现商业化生产。除开发技术等因素外,天然气水合物开发投入、产出的成本问题也是制约海底天然气水合物大规模开发的另一关键因素。文章从经济可行性的视角分析海底天然气水合物目前开采成本、未来开采成本的变化以及未来的价格优势,从而对天然气水合物开发的前景进行相关研究。研究结果显示,虽然目前天然气水合物的开采成本要高于常规天然气,但随着今后开采技术的改进,天然气水合物开采的总成本、边际成本和平均成本都会相应降低,当天然气水合物的价格低于常规天然气价格时,天然气水合物的商业化生产便可能实现。
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| 关 键 词： | 海底 天然气水合物 开发前景 成本 经济可行性 |
Future Prospects of Marine Gas Hydrate:Insights from Economic Potential |
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| XING Congcong,YAO Haiyan,HUO Suxi,ZHU Chaoqi and GUO Yanan.Future Prospects of Marine Gas Hydrate:Insights from Economic Potential[J].Ocean Development and Management,2018,35(11):72-75. |
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| Authors: | XING Congcong YAO Haiyan HUO Suxi ZHU Chaoqi and GUO Yanan |
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| Affiliation: | North China Sea Environmental Monitoring Center,SOA,Key Laboratory of Marine Spill Oil Identification and Damage Assessment Technology,North China Sea Environmental Monitoring Center,SOA,Key Laboratory of Marine Spill Oil Identification and Damage Assessment Technology,North China Sea Environmental Monitoring Center,SOA,Key Laboratory of Marine Spill Oil Identification and Damage Assessment Technology,Ocean University of China,Key Laboratory of Marine Geo-environmental Engineering of Shandong Province and North China Sea Environmental Monitoring Center,SOA,Key Laboratory of Marine Spill Oil Identification and Damage Assessment Technology |
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| Abstract: | The exploitation and utilization of gas hydrate is of great significance to the national energy security and environmental protection.However,as a new type of deep sea energy,marine gas hydrate has not yet been commercialized.In addition to technical problems and the possible significance of hydrate to ocean and its impact on climate and seafloor stability,the cost is another key factor that restricts the commercialized production.In this paper,the economic potential of the gas hydrate was analyzed.The results showed the investment and cost of gas hydrate is more than the traditional oil and gas resources.Conventional gas will become scarce,resulting increasing prices for conventional gas.At the same time,it can be expected that the production cost of gas from hydrate will gradually decrease due to technological development.When the price of the cheapest gas from hydrate matches that of conventional gas,it will be commercially worthwhile to begin producing methane from gas hydrate. |
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