| 中国历史极端干旱研究进展 |
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| 引用本文： | 屈艳萍,吕娟,张伟兵,苏志诚,李哲.中国历史极端干旱研究进展[J].水科学进展,2018,29(2):283-292. |
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| 作者姓名： | 屈艳萍 吕娟 张伟兵 苏志诚 李哲 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国水利水电科学研究院防洪抗旱减灾研究所, 北京 100038; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划资助项目（2017YFC1502404）；中国水利水电科学研究院团队建设及人才培养类项目（JZ0145B752017） |
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| 摘 要： | 中国现有抗旱相关法规、规划、标准和制度等均是按常态干旱考虑的，几乎没有考虑大范围、长历时极端干旱的问题。一旦发生类似崇祯大旱和光绪大旱等极端干旱，将对中国经济社会产生深刻影响。从历史旱涝序列重建、极端干旱事件复原和重演3个方面论述了相关研究进展，发现重建方面缺乏重建方法对比研究、重建序列时空分辨率较低等，复原方面缺乏干旱灾害双重属性的考虑等，重演方面缺乏对抗旱减灾能力以及全球气候变化的考虑等。对未来研究重点和实践需求进行了展望，指出需在不同重建方法交叉检验、高时空分辨率旱涝序列重建、基于自然灾害双重属性的历史极端干旱事件复原、历史极端干旱事件定量化重演和干旱巨灾风险应对战略等方面取得突破性进展。
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| 关 键 词： | 极端干旱 重建 复原 重演 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017-06-22 |
Progress in research on historical extreme drought in China |
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| QU Yanping,LYU Juan,ZHANG Weibing,SU Zhicheng,LI Zhe.Progress in research on historical extreme drought in China[J].Advances in Water Science,2018,29(2):283-292. |
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| Authors: | QU Yanping LYU Juan ZHANG Weibing SU Zhicheng LI Zhe |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Department of Flood and Drought Disaster Reduction, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China;2.Research Center on Flood and Drought Disaster Reduction, Beijing 100038, China;3.Water History Department, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China |
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| Abstract: | Current drought-related laws, regulations, plans and standards are targeted to deal with droughts once in 5 to 10 years, without any consideration for extreme droughts characterized by large scope and long duration. Once extreme drought like Chongzhen drought in the late of Ming dynasty or Guangxu drought in Qing dynasty occurs, it will exert severe impacts on the all aspects of our economic society. In the paper, we carry out literature review on the following three aspects:reconstruction of historical flood and drought sequence, restoration and repetition of historical extreme drought. Although the past researches have made great achievements, there are still many needs to be improved. In respect of historical sequence reconstruction, we found that the flood and drought sequences reconstructed by different methods cannot be compared with each other, and the sequences characterized by low temporal and spatial resolution. With regard to historical extreme drought restoration, there is a lack of consideration of the dual attributes of drought. As for historical extreme drought repetition, seldom attention has been paid on drought mitigation capacity and global climate change. Finally, the future research focus and practical demands are forecasted. Breakthroughs need to be made in the following aspects:cross-check between different reconstruction methods, sequence reconstruction with high temporal-spatial resolution, historical extreme drought restoration based on the dual attributes of natural disaster, quantification repetition of historical extreme droughts, and catastrophe risk coping strategy. |
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| Keywords: | extreme drought reconstruction restoration repetition |
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