| 水资源承载力预警研究进展 |
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| 引用本文： | 金菊良,陈梦璐,郦建强,张礼兵,吴成国.水资源承载力预警研究进展[J].水科学进展,2018,29(4):583-596. |
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| 作者姓名： | 金菊良 陈梦璐 郦建强 张礼兵 吴成国 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院, 安徽 合肥 230009; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划资助项目（2016YFC0401303）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（51579059） |
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| 摘 要： | 针对水资源承载力预警方法的研究，通过揭示水资源-社会经济-生态环境复合系统间各要素的相互作用机制，可有效地对水资源承载力的突发和异常状况进行事前行为评价和预警，是资源环境承载能力预警研究的关键组成部分。为此，借鉴有关学科领域对预警系统现有的研究成果，立足于水资源承载力预警系统的概念和机制，从诊断、预测、评价和调控方面对水资源承载力预警的主要方法进行综述，并提出水资源承载力预警未来研究重点和主要发展方面的建议，包括:① 进一步完善水资源承载力预警系统的概念界定；② 构建水资源承载力预警指标体系；③ 深入水资源承载力预警系统的整体研究；④ 重视实现水资源承载力预警动态性预测；⑤ 进一步加强水资源承载力调控措施方面的研究。
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| 关 键 词： | 水资源承载力 预警系统 预警方法 概念分析 研究进展 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-02-01 |
Advance in early warning of water resources carrying capacity |
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| JIN Juliang,CHEN Menglu,LI Jianqiang,ZHANG Libing,WU Chengguo.Advance in early warning of water resources carrying capacity[J].Advances in Water Science,2018,29(4):583-596. |
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| Authors: | JIN Juliang CHEN Menglu LI Jianqiang ZHANG Libing WU Chengguo |
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| Affiliation: | 1.College of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China;2.Institute of Water Resource and Environmental System Engineering, College of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China;3.Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design General Institute, MWR, Beijing 100120, China |
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| Abstract: | Water resources is one of the most essential natural resources throughout the world. Development of the early warning methods of water resources carrying capacity, by revealing the interaction mechanism between the water resources, the social economy and the ecological environment, can aid in the effective evaluation and warning of the sudden and abnormal state of the water resources carrying capacity, and is the key part of the early-warning on the carrying capacity of water resources. For this reason, the main methods of early warning of water resources carrying capacity has been summarized into four aspects:diagnosis, prediction, evaluation and regulation, and the main points for future research on water resources bearing capacity early warning have been put forward based on its concepts and mechanisms:① to further refine the concept of water resources carrying capacity warning system; ② to establish the indicator system of water resources carrying capacity; ③ to lucubrate the holistic study of water resources carrying capacity; ④ to realize the dynamic warning of water carrying capacity; ⑤ to enhance the study of the adjustment measure of water carrying capacity. |
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| Keywords: | water resource carrying capacity early warning system early warning methods concept analysis progress of researches |
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