| 梯级水库设计洪水最可能地区组成法计算通式 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘章君,郭生练,李天元,徐长江.梯级水库设计洪水最可能地区组成法计算通式[J].水科学进展,2014,25(4):575-584. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘章君 郭生练 李天元 徐长江 |
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| 作者单位： | 武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室, 水资源安全保障湖北省协同创新中心, 湖北 武汉 430072 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(51190094;51079100)~~ |
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| 摘 要： | 利用Copula函数建立各分区洪水的联合分布，基于联合概率密度最大原则，推导得到最可能地区组成法的计算通式，并用来推求梯级水库下游断面的设计洪水。选择清江流域水布垭-隔河岩-高坝洲梯级水库为例，开展了验证和方法比较研究。结果表明:最可能地区组成法计算得到的设计洪水值位于同频率地区组成法多方案计算结果的区间之内；受清江梯级水库调洪的影响，宜都断面设计洪水的削峰率十分显著，最可能地区组成法推求100年一遇设计洪水的削峰率达到30.2%。该法具有较强的统计基础，组成方案唯一，结果合理可行，为复杂梯级水库设计洪水的计算提供了一种新途径。
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| 关 键 词： | 设计洪水 梯级水库 最可能地区组成法 计算通式 Copula函数 清江流域 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014-01-07 |
General formula derivation of most likely regional composition method for design flood estimation of cascade reservoirs system |
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| LIU Zhangjun,GUO Shenglian,LI Tianyuan,XU Changjiang.General formula derivation of most likely regional composition method for design flood estimation of cascade reservoirs system[J].Advances in Water Science,2014,25(4):575-584. |
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| Authors: | LIU Zhangjun GUO Shenglian LI Tianyuan XU Changjiang |
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| Affiliation: | State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Hubei Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center for Water Resource Security, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China |
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| Abstract: | In this study the joint probability distributions of floods at all sub-basins of cascade reservoirs were established using Copula function and based on the principle of maximizing joint probability density function the general formula of the most likely regional composition (MLRC) method was derived for design flood estimation of downstream reservoirs. The developed procedure was tested and compared with equivalent frequency regional composition (EFRC) method for determination of design flood of the Shuibuya-Geheyan-Gaobazhou cascade reservoirs system located at the Qingjiang River, a tributary of the Yangtze River in China. The results show that the design flood values of the MLRC method are within the range of peak discharges estimated by different EFRC schemes. The design flood reduction rates of the Yidu site are found to be evident due to the regulation of upstream cascade reservoirs, and the 100-year design flood reduction rate estimated by the MLRC method is 30.2%. The findings of the study reveal that the proposed method not only has strong statistical basis, but also has rational results with unique composition scheme, which will provide a new approach for design flood estimation of complex cascade reservoirs system. |
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| Keywords: | design flood cascade reservoirs most likely regional composition method general formula Copula function Qingjiang basin |
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