| 1470年以来中国东部季风区降水变化规律及趋势预估 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 刘艳丽,华悦,周惠成,叶磊,王国庆,金君良,鲍振鑫.1470年以来中国东部季风区降水变化规律及趋势预估[J].水科学进展,2022,33(1):1-14. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 刘艳丽 华悦 周惠成 叶磊 王国庆 金君良 鲍振鑫 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1.南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室, 江苏 南京 210029 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划资助项目(2018YFC1508104);国家自然科学基金资助项目(52079079)。 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 超长系列的降水资料是分析气候变化和预估未来区域水安全形势的重要支撑，但目前观测资料只有几十年时间尺度，利用相关历史文献资料进行系列重建是延长现有观测资料的主要手段。基于《中国近五百年旱涝分布图集》和1959年以来实测降水资料，重建1470—2019年中国东部季风区的长序列降水数据，分析近550 a以来区域降水变化规律，剖析气候自然变异规律和人为气候变化对历史降水的影响，并通过CMIP6中等分辨率气候系统模式下的4种情景降水数据预估未来降水变化趋势。研究表明:①东部季风区降水年际分布不均，有明显的丰枯变化，1470—1691年整体处于枯水期，1692—1924年处于丰水期，1925年至今处于枯水期，存在准181 a周期；② 1991年后人为气候变化的影响已经显现，海河、黄河下游和长江流域部分降水倾向率发生显著变化，东部季风区总体降水增加趋势加快；③在未来气候变化情景下多年平均降水量较基准期（1961—1990年）显著增加，季节性变化加大，区域旱涝风险加剧。由于未来气候情景的不确定性，未来降水趋势预测的可信度尚未可知，需要进一步增强风险分析。
|
| 关 键 词： | 降水系列重建 变化特征 趋势预估 人为气候变化 气候自然变异 中国东部季风区 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-04-14 |
Precipitation variation and trend projection in the eastern monsoon region of China since 1470 |
| |
| LIU Yanli,HUA Yue,ZHOU Huicheng,YE Lei,WANG Guoqing,JIN Junliang,BAO Zhenxin.Precipitation variation and trend projection in the eastern monsoon region of China since 1470[J].Advances in Water Science,2022,33(1):1-14. |
| |
| Authors: | LIU Yanli HUA Yue ZHOU Huicheng YE Lei WANG Guoqing JIN Junliang BAO Zhenxin |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1.State Key Laboratory of Hydrolog-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China2.Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Nanjing 210098, China3.School of Hydraulic Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China4.China Water Resources Beifang Investigation, Design and Research Co. Ltd, Tianjin 300222, China |
| |
| Abstract: | Extra long-term data series for precipitation is essential to the analysis of climate change and projection of regional water security in the future.While the observation data are often limited to only a few decades,historical documents could be used to reconstruct and estimate the historical precipitation to extend the data series.Based on the′Atlas of drought/flood in China for the last 500-year period′and the observed precipitation data from 1959,this study reconstructed the long sequence of precipitation for the monsoon region of eastern China from 1470 to 2019.This study also investigated the variation pattern of precipitation for this 500-year period,explored the impacts of human-induced climate change and natural climate variability on precipitation,and projected the change trend of precipitation for the four scenarios from CMIP6.The results show that:①The interannual distribution of precipitation in the region wasuneven with obvious wet and dry variations,1470—1691 was in the dry period,1692—1924 was a wet period,and turned into another dry period since 1925 with a quasi-181-year cycle;②The impact of human-induced climate change has become apparent since 1991,wit a significant change in the tendency rates for precipitation in the Hai River,the Lower Yellow River and Yangtze River basins and the accelerated increasing trend of precipitation in the region;③Under the future climate change scenarios,the multi-year average precipitation would have a significant increase comparing to the baseline period of 1961—1990,greater seasonal variations,and higher risk of regional drought and flood.However,further study is needed on the liability for the change trend and risk analyses due to the uncertainty of future climate scenarios. |
| |
| Keywords: | reconstruction of precipitation data series variation characteristics trend projection human-induced climate change natural climate variability the eastern monsoon region of China |
| 本文献已被 维普 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《水科学进展》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《水科学进展》下载全文 |
|
