| 基于copula函数的三峡水库预泄对鄱阳湖防洪影响分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 梁忠民,郭彦,胡义明,汤春义.基于copula函数的三峡水库预泄对鄱阳湖防洪影响分析[J].水科学进展,2012,23(4):485-492. |
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| 作者姓名： | 梁忠民 郭彦 胡义明 汤春义 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.河海大学水文水资源学院, 江苏南京 210098; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(51079039);水利部公益性行业科研专项经费资助项目(2007SHZ1-9)~~ |
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| 摘 要： | 三峡工程的运行对鄱阳湖防洪形势存在潜在影响。以三峡-鄱阳湖系统为典型,采用基于copula理论的多维联合分布函数,建立三峡工程运行前长江-鄱阳湖-"五河"(赣江、抚河、信江、饶河、修河)系统中水文要素之间的联合概率分布及条件概率分布,并假设该条件分布关系在三峡工程运行前后保持不变;估计三峡工程运行后长江水文要素的概率分布,结合前面的条件概率分布,可以得到三峡工程运行后研究变量的概率分布;对比分析前后概率分布的变化,即可从统计角度评价三峡水库运行对鄱阳湖水文情势的影响。研究表明:三峡工程运行对鄱阳湖水位有一定影响;5、6月份三峡预泄,将增高鄱阳湖水位,其中,平均水位的增幅大于最高水位增幅,低水增幅大于高水增幅;三峡预泄影响下,湖区圩堤堤前水位没有超过原有堤防设计水位,没有降低湖区圩堤的防洪标准。
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| 关 键 词： | 防洪 copula函数 联合概率分布函数 条件概率分布函数 三峡水库 鄱阳湖 |
| 收稿时间： | 2011-08-15 |
Impact of the pre-release from Three Gorges Reservoir on flood control in Poyang Lake using a copula-based approach |
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| LIANG Zhong-min
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GUO Yan
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HU Yi-ming
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TANG Chun-yi.Impact of the pre-release from Three Gorges Reservoir on flood control in Poyang Lake using a copula-based approach[J].Advances in Water Science,2012,23(4):485-492. |
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| Authors: | LIANG Zhong-min GUO Yan HU Yi-ming TANG Chun-yi |
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| Affiliation: | 1.College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;2.East China Investigation and Design Institute, Hangzhou 310000, China |
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| Abstract: | The operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR) could potentially affect the flow regime in the Poyang Lake and its adopted flood control plan.In this paper,the theory of copula function is used to establish the joint probability distribution functions for hydrological variables in the "Yangtze River-Poyang Lake-five rivers" system without considering the TGR operation.These conditional probability distribution functions are then derived.It is assumed that the conditional distribution function remains unchanged in the system after the TGR operation.The new probability distribution functions for hydrological variables can be obtained after the TGR operation through analyzing the probability distribution function of discharges of the Yangtze River after the TGR operation and combining the new discharge probability distribution function with the previously established conditional probability distribution.The difference in the probability distribution functions before and after the TGR operation can be seen as the TGR impact on the flood control in the Poyang Lake.Results show that the pre-releases from the TGR in May and June will increase the water level of the Poyang Lake.The increase in average water level will be greater than that of the maximum water level,and the low water increase will be greater than that of the high water.Under the influence of the TGR operation,the water level is unlikely to exceed the currently adopted design value.Thus,the flood protection standard of the embankments for the Poyang Lake will remain unchanged after the TGR operation. |
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| Keywords: | flood control copula function joint probability distribution function conditional probability distribution function Three Gorges Reservoir Poyang Lake |
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