| 中国水安全系统模拟及对策比较研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 张巧显,欧阳志云,王如松,王效科,闵庆文,付国斌,苗鸿.中国水安全系统模拟及对策比较研究[J].水科学进展,2002,13(5):569-577. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张巧显 欧阳志云 王如松 王效科 闵庆文 付国斌 苗鸿 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国科学院生态环境研究中心系统生态重点实验室, 北京, 100085; |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院知识创新重大项目(KZCX2-405);中国科学院生态环境研究中心知识创新项目(RECCS9903) |
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| 摘 要： | 运用系统分析的理论与方法,分析了中国水生态系统的特征及各组分间的相互作用,建立了中国水安全动态模型.模型从生命安全、经济安全、粮食安全、生态系统安全、环境安全和社会安全等六个子安全出发,在按常规发展的模拟,技术革新模拟,体制改革和引为诱导模拟以及水资源可持续利用模拟四种不同情景下进行系统模拟.结果表明:只有加速技术创新,增强水生态和节水意识,加强水管理,中国水安全才能得以保证.
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| 关 键 词： | 中国 水安全 水资源 可持续利用 系统模拟 对策 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-6791(2002)05-569-09 |
| 收稿时间： | 2001-10-20 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001年10月20 |
Modeling water security in China and comparison of the strategies |
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| ZHANG Qiao-xian,OUYANG Zhi-yun,WANG Ru-song,WANG Xiao-ke,MIN Qing-wen,FU Guo-bin,MIAO Hong.Modeling water security in China and comparison of the strategies[J].Advances in Water Science,2002,13(5):569-577. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Qiao-xian OUYANG Zhi-yun WANG Ru-song WANG Xiao-ke MIN Qing-wen FU Guo-bin MIAO Hong |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Key Laboratory Systems Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Science, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100085, China;2.Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS., Beijing 100101, China |
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| Abstract: | A China water security dynamic model were built up based on the systematical analyses of characteristics and their interrelationship of sub-systems of water resource system in China.In modeling,four scenarios,as the business as usual,the technology and economic scenario,the institutional,value,and life style changes scenario and the towards sustainable development scenario,were simulated in terms of life security,economical security,food security,ecosystem security,environmental security and social security.The simulation suggested that the water security in China can be guaranteed by combined with accelerated water use technology innovation,new water management policy and management system reform,and ecological and economical awareness on water resource impnwement. |
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| Keywords: | China water security water resources sustainable utilization systems simulation strategy |
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